Written on a train from Bristol to London and dispatched to silicon.com via a free wi-fi service in Woodbridge near my home a day later

As a technologist engaged in R&D activities, a part-time academic and investor, I get to see new developments at a really early stage, and sometimes it has been 20 to 30 years between my first sighting and full commercialisation of a particular product or technology.

Technologies often mature far too early for the market, or fail to gain traction for other reasons such as cheaper and alternative solutions. Whatever the reason it is not good news - and timing is everything!

Today we are living off a line of R&D and inventions extending back 10 to 30 years, and the big question is: will the recent reductions in R&D funding by industry and governments impact on our ability to innovate and create new products 10 to 30 years down the line?

The pessimists say yes with some urgency and slight panic in their voice, but I suspect we are witnessing some funding wave function. What do I mean? Well, technological advancements are not a smooth process at all. We actually go forward on the basis of a series of lurches with one raft of innovation powering one economic wave after another.

A key feature of each successive wave is the realisation of more technology, progress and advantage for less material and energy, benefiting a larger proportion of our species. I reckon we are about to see a new wave as the planet powers out of the banking crisis and economic recession.

Today we see a new component in the equation of progress and it is the collapse of the artificial silos of physics, chemistry, biology and mathematics. All are being bridged by technology and computational power. Add this to the web 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0 worlds of the semantic web powered by artificial intelligence and I think innovation itself takes a leg up.

This represents a radical change with man and machine discovering and innovating in unison - something that never happened before.

It goes like this:

1. Man innovates and creates tools
2. Tools magnify human muscle power
3. Tools are used by man to create machines
4. Machines are refined by man to become a new class of tool
5. Machines magnify human brain power
6. Machines manufacture machines
7. Networked humans and machines achieve new levels of knowledge
8. Networked machines assume intelligence and start evolving
9. Machines design and manufacture machines
10. Man becomes the QA, legal and ethics department

Many futurologists see the next stage as the singularity - the point at which the machines take over and sideline us.

So should we be worried? Concerned perhaps but worried, no. Looking back over history people have always worried about technology but it is hard to see a better time to be alive than now. If you are not sure take a look at a car, TV, mobile phone, PC and medical treatments from 20 years ago.

Written on KLM1515 flying from Norwich to Amsterdam and dispatched to silicon.com the same day via a company wired LAN

I've just been looking at avatars and synthetic people over the past 15 years and must say the progress that's been made is very impressive - from the 'blocky and doll like' mannequins we currently see on social websites to the characters appearing in Hollywood movies alongside real actors.

It seems to me the real breakthroughs have been in the realm of body dynamics, skin and hair rendering and, most of all, building in human imperfections. Non-symmetrical faces and bodies, pock-marked skin, hair that is uneven and individually tapered, colour and texture variations and ugly movement seem to carry the day.

I have always held that it is our physical and mental imperfections that both define us and make us interesting, and it certainly seems to be the case with our facsimiles!

Only five years ago the perfect skin and movement of the synthetics instantly gave them away. Today they are standing in for real people during movie action scenes involving serious dangers or impossible acts for real humans. Soon I suspect they will be replacing actors in more sedentary scenes - and I can see the possibility of a whole new genre with movies, TV shows and adverts totally populated by synthetic people.

Such a possibility would of course leverage the latent talent of those 'undiscovered' by Hollywood and break the mould of an industry first cast in the 1920s.

I think I can safely predict the first industry to adopt, adapt and perfect this technology will be the purveyors of porn. They are always on the cusp of the technology wave, and have both the money and motivation to try out new things.

Next I reckon synthetic people will be used for advertising. Of course the really interesting developments in this area will be the usual 'stage left entries' created by those working out of bedrooms or garages.

Other uses for this tech will include interfaces with machines, as well as medical and other personal services.

The big challenge will soon be: is it a real or synthetic person I am conversing with? To answer this we may soon need a second Turing Test capable of detecting the presence or lack of real humanity.

One upside is that we might feel a bit better about being beaten at chess by a machine that is less handsome or pretty than we are. Or more generally, those who feel uncomfortable interfacing with machines may feel at peace talking to a human-like face, whilst some might not even notice it is a machine at all!

How long for all this to happen? I reckon a decade should see it all as commonplace!