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By FTDynamo FTDynamo, 17 July 2001 07:00

COMMENT Brazil, it is sometimes said unkindly, is the country of the future& and always will be. But whether any of us is fit for the future is the real question we should be asking. Markets, economies, technologies and people seem to be at a turning point. (Journalists often conveniently imagine they can see turning points when they are on a deadline to produce some copy, but this one appears to be genuine). The high-tech boom has halted, paused for breath, and not quite made its mind up which way to turn. Economic growth, too, has stalled, but it doesn't really feel like a recession or a slump, except perhaps in Japan. Consumerism continues apace, but a burgeoning, internationally felt unease about global consumerism is spreading through the developed and developing worlds alike. Environmental concerns are growing, but the world, prompted by the US, cannot even approve the minimalist Kyoto agreement. Without Bill Clinton's grinning presence world political leadership is quiet. And now even GE's great Jack Welch has been denied his final lap of honour on the corporate stage. We are rudderless, hesitant in Tom Peters' "brawl with no rules". We are making things up as we go along. Is today's world - light on ideology (except that of the free market), and light on purpose - the only future we can look forward to? These disconnected and abstract thoughts are prompted by a roundtable discussion FTdynamo took part in a few days ago. The topic was the apparently specialised subject of advertising on the internet: what works, what doesn't, and how you can tell the difference. While the specific theme for discussion was simple, the implications of the conversation that developed were profound. Our memories are short. It was pointed out by one panelist that it is only 10 years since Tim Berners-Lee first hinted at the possibilities of the world wide web. Only 10 years - how long has the motor car or the jet engine been in existence, and yet we expect the 'New Economy' to have already established clear principles and practices? The internet has been the equivalent of a powerful, almost blinding searchlight shone into the hidden corners of the business world. A lot of rather unpleasant things have been shown up: archaic 'customer care', the pedestrian speed at which companies respond to events, turgid and stifling bureaucracies. But we are still in the earliest stages of the internet's development. How far we have come was reflected by the discussion on advertising. The much sought after number of 'hits', once a Holy Grail, is now seen in a new light. 'Clicks', also once regarded as an ultimate symbol of strength, are considered to be less significant than before. 'Eyeballs', an early internet priority, receive less emphasis. Instead, a radical new terminology has descended on cyberspace: a world of 'cash flow', 'completed transactions', 'revenue', and 'profit. Look these words up in a dictionary if you've forgotten what they mean. Warren Buffett, who had to endure some criticism two years ago when it was felt the Sage of Omaha had missed out on the high-tech boom, announced in his recent letter to investors that his firm will be investing in exciting business such as building aggregates - brick and paint. "Try to contain your excitement," he advised. The very name of one of the roundtable participants - ValueClick - reveals the extent to which thinking on internet business has changed. Never mind the hype and the jargon - where is the value for money? Where is the evidence that advertising on the internet works? The debate ended with a classic New Economy moment. We were discussing, as usual, the brilliance of Amazon.com, and its versatility. A loophole in the business model was identified. "I'm an Amazon associate," one colleague declared proudly (associates take a percentage of sales). "Of course, I'm the only person I sell any books to." We are in an upside-down world, still dizzy, still confused. We are living through one of the greatest social, industrial and economic dislocations of the past two centuries. We can't know what will happen next. We have only instinct, common sense and experience to fall back on. At times like these, perhaps only the great baseball player and coach Yogi Berra can help. "When you come to a crossroads," he advised, "take it". FTdynamo, the management website from FT Knowledge, where the latest in business thinking is put into context and delivered to your desktop, is now live. Visit us at http://www.ftdynamo.com and register for a FREE two week trial subscription.