By Peter Cochrane, 7 May 2004 09:38
COMMENT As more users get comfortable with computers and outsourcing becomes commonplace, the need for companies to provide dedicated IT staffs could diminish, says Peter Cochrane. So get ready to find your own support.
A profound change is taking place in the IT sector that will have significant repercussions for business, commerce and society - including the possible demise of traditional corporate IT departments.
The first factor to consider is that prices for tech products have fallen to the level of our white and brown goods - washing machines, television sets and the hi-fi. This is coincident with an increasing ease of use that saw the mobile phone make the transition from technology to toy in less than five years, and the PC with its multimedia interface is now well on the road to achieving the same distinction.
Not only are people buying devices almost without a second thought, many find that using them does not require a great deal of thought. It would be untrue to say that it is easy to use either a desktop or laptop, but I think most would agree that increasing numbers of people are having a go and succeeding at both home and office.
Of course there are exceptions to the rule - those who steadfastly refuse to try, or can't, adapt to newer technologies. The good news is that they are now the minority and are becoming increasingly insignificant. Managers and workers who won't or can't use a computer are being sidelined, retiring early, or plain giving up. Not being able to master a PC is now on a par with not being able to read, write, or count. It is disabling!
I can safely predict that the next five years will see computers make the same transition automobiles have over the past 25 years - we will not be treating them with any particular reverence. They will become just another commodity, a powerful tool, a convenience, and of course an example of outstanding technological progress that will be taken for granted like all technologies before IT.
What follows this transition? Well, results from a recent survey show that about 80 per cent of office workers across the EU spend at least one day out of the office and some 30 per cent have no office at all. These are the mobile, home-based workers, who most likely don't have a full-time contract with any company. These 'tech-nomads' are on the rise and are complimented by growing amounts of outsourcing across many sectors. Most importantly, they are largely self-sufficient for tech support.
As a result, there is a new line of company thinking that goes something like this - we don't supply offices, pens, paper, mobile phones, PCs, laptops, cars and technical support for everyone, so why should we supply these things for anyone? This is especially so as the number of part-time, temporary and outsourced jobs rises to above 30 per cent of a company's total workforce.
If we are going to have a 21st century workforce of transient people with a growing list of capabilities who rapidly migrate from one job to another, then it seems highly unlikely that corporations will continue to own pools of computers and employ IT specialists. Moreover, if we are also going to move from business organisation to business organism, with widespread virtualisation and the globalisation that naturally follows, then this change in IT provision most likely has to be a given for some reasonable level of efficiency.
Most of my friends and colleagues consider the laptop or PC they use for their work a personal possession. It is theirs, the information that it contains is theirs and they make every effort not to lose that information through mistake, accident or the deliberate action of other people. In addition, these devices tend to contain all of their life bits - music, photographs, games and other memorabilia - that are now being scanned and stored in a bit form because of the sheer quantity of atoms that we are no longer able to store.
Where does this leave us? It looks as though the clock could be ticking for corporate IT and security departments in the same way typing pools bit the dust over 20 years ago. The tyranny of the typing pool ended with the computer terminal and the PC. The tyranny of IT departments looks to be coming to an end through a combination of smarter users, better software and outsourcing. No longer will your company's IT staff dictate which laptop and PDA you can purchase, which applications you can use, and which networks you can access. You, the end user, will get to call the shots, to choose the tools that best allow you to do your job most efficiently.
The virtualisation of business is leading to a virtualisation of society itself, one that's affecting education, healthcare and all forms of support. Each of us and each family unit is gradually becoming more self-sufficient and less dependent on others for its welfare and survival - if, that is, we have connection to a good network of outsourced and reliable resources to support us.
Column conceived on BA297 flying London to Chicago, dictated weeks later at my home and despatched to my PA via broadband. She typed and emailed to me 12 hours later and I collected at Stansted Airport using Wi-Fi. Revision completed while flying to Edinburgh on bumpy EZY237. Final copy despatched from a hotel on Queen Street via 40Kbps dial-up.
Comments
There are 21 comments. Join the discussion
1. anonymous
But, like the typing pool, there will always be a refuge for IT departments in local government for, at the very least, the next 20 years!
2. Peter Falconer
I agree entirely with the article that this is the general direction we all headed however the smart organisation already realises that just providing a member of staff with a laptop and other ICT devices does not necessarily make them more productive. The smart IT Department within a smart organisation is already broadening the services it provides to include staff development, buying/building applications that truly help staff do the work they are paid to do, providing innovative solutions which open up new business opportunities inside and outside the organisation, ensuring that the sea of legislative requirements is navigated effectively, working with the HR department to get appropriate policies in place, working to develop intranets and portals that efficiently let the organisation manage information, knowledge management and e-learning etc. For most organisations I don't see IT departments disappearing anytime soon - unless the scale of the reductions in the cost of hardware is also reflected in much lower costs for software, out-sourced support and development, consultancy, security services and disaster recovery.
3. anonymous
I'm rather heartened that the
good professor has come to understand
exactly what those of us who have to
deal with the soul-less minions of
outsourcers such as CSC dislike, and
how we have chosen to deal with it.
I really rather like the idea of
'In-sourcing', especially when I've got a better idea of how to fix/upgrade the computer on my desk than the overworked drone from the
end of the helpdesk hellhole.
4. A. Lizard
I'm dubious.
While I can *imagine* (have to, the evidence isn't compelling) the virtualization of the workforce that stays in the First World, at the current state of the art, this makes IT staff more important, not less. Maybe everybody the author knows is a knowledgable road warrior, but the average user "comfortable with computers" is the person who clicks on dubious file attachments, has no clue about file format conversion (say PaintShopPro to anything running on a Mac), is NOT going to be setting up VPN connections to the office.
There also isn't really any evidence I know of that the mass of people are looking for Internet appliances with a little word processing built in. People *expect* to be able to extend the capability of their electronic boxes, even if they (usually) have no clue what to. Not to say there won't be any Internet appliances, but they'll be things like home media centers and traditional appliances given Internet capabilities with the computer used for business and Internet connection simply becoming less obtrusive, more reliable, more secure, not vanished.
5. anonymous
In principle, I agree, although I'd reckon on seeing fewer, more focussed dedicated resources within corporate IT, making sure that standards are maintained, service levels met and that everything works together, rather than a bunch of itinerant techies blaming each other for the latest disaster!
6. Hid Sugiura
As most users become comfortable with computers?
Hello? What office do YOU work in????????
With the massive increase in the use of computers in the office, I think it's more important than ever to have a dedicated IT guy in-house. I'm not talking about your 50k/year tech head, i'm talking about a competent, knowledgable guy who has good communication skills, can set up PCs, fix printers etc and who can do 'something else', like develop databases and web pages or what have you (ie the relatively SIMPLER end of the IT spectrum.). I'm talking about 'normal' IT people, instead of your C++ programming, server expert with billions of other weird acronyms after his name.
I think a jack of all trades IT person who gets to know a company well from the inside is a helluva lot more useful than some stranger coming in once in a while mainly cos outsourced IT guys who don't work in a proper office environment with non-IT personnel speak so much nonsense it's untrue. They tend to forget what real users are all about.
7. Peter Barnsley
We may well see a decrease in the number of IT support calls to departments (e.g. how do i change my password?), but we will always need developers, and support staff to roll out new products and services to the masses.
If anything this means more interesting jobs for IT staff, they can get up from underneath someones desk and do something more useful.
8. Mark Lisle
I think this guy is way off Base with his statements. As an IT professional Contractor I see that the more mundane IT tasks are being farmed out often unsucessfully to offshore companies. Leaving IT contractors and employees to concentrate on more complex programming tasks. I have heard many times that the paradigm shift will save time. But in my experience infrastructures are increasing in complexity not simplifying. I have worked in the fields of GSM, Banking communications and embedded software and I find domain specific knowledge is getting more complicated each year. Many Organisations are seeking to become more compliant to customer needs and wants and legislation every year leads to the layers of complexity growing exponentally in some cases. Let us use the analogy of the GSM industry 5 years ago a develper needed to know about basic infrastructure and many of the basic protocols. Then came SMS a protocol involving a 1200 page standard from the ITU and then GPRS, MMS , WAP and on the back of this UMTS or 3G. All of this driven by customer demand and Marketing demands. The level of complexity is greater and involves huge teams of highly skilled and educated engineers. I have worked in IT companies where much of this has tried to be farmed out to India , Hungary and numerous other places and most often it has been an abject failure due to Accountants failing to grasp that IT is all about modelling complexities not mundane automation.
Yes it maybe true that pc's are becoming cheaper and more accessible and yes you can type your essays and sweeping statements on a Boeing jet or create excel macros to show your companys false profitability but any person wishing to approach high complexity soft which most infrastructure software is would go back to writing macros. IT departments are always going to be around
However if he is on about
9. anonymous
And every soldier can buy their own gun and transport. Then they can teach themselves to shoot and drive. And we can outsource some water pistols and unicycles for the rest.
Who needs standard equipment and training?
Errr ....... that'll be us then.
10. Dave
Has the good professor lost the plot? "The average office worker will be able to add themselves to a network" what utopia is this man living in? It is hard enough to get the average office worker to fill the paper bins on a printer. Outsourcing to these technical nomads makes sense if you can find a knowledgeable one. It’s not just a question of finding one that once read a .net concept book and now thinks they are a developer. IMHO the IT department is here to stay, its job roll may move to include technical development but 5 years time will still see the internal IT department going strong long after the demise of the outsourced consultant.
11. anonymous
I've heard this sort of rambling many times.
As someone who works in the front line of IT, I've probably only met about 5 people who could keep their desktop/laptop up and running for longer than 6 months without calling for support. I've lost track of the times I've been asked to repair PC's for people after they have gotten a 'friend of theirs who knows about computers' to install something for them.
Computers are not like most purchases. How many car manufacturers expect you to install the engine yourself? Computer software and drivers will always cause problems while there is a free market to create software and hardware for the PC. Then there are the service packs, patches etc etc...
Finally I tend to cringe when 'experts' follow up with summaries like "despatched to my PA via broadband. She typed and emailed to me 12 hours later". Ever heard of voice dictation software?
12. anonymous
If tech-nomads are on the increase then more support, rather than less, will be required! I certainly answer more calls from home-users now, they still need the support when things don't work properly!
In the future it is more likely there will be need to find a support-nomad to solve your problems! We ain't all drones y'know, in fact, some of us know what we're doing and can be very helpful!
13. Mark Webber
Wouldn't the venders have a field day. I have enough difficulties now explaining the hype from the reality when users are drawn in to the head in the clouds marketing campaigns that we all to commonly see. I like the idea however the fact that I spend a great deal of my personal time dealing with my friends and family PC and related problems speaks for itself. Add into the pot the security and comms aspects, corporate software, patches etc the rationale goes out the window. I am all for empowered users but this does stretch the imagination a little. The advances should enable the corporate IT departments to increase expectations of service and delivery whilst reducing costs.
14. Tom Carpenter
Information Management is the new wave. All IT people should realize this and jump on board. Don't look at yourself as a "techie". Look at yourself as an information manager. Become a valuable asset to your organization because you know and understand the data. It's time to show our value. Let's stand up and scream... we know the business not just the technology.
15. Andy
I still get asked basic questions. Most users know where the keyboard is. My job is kept secure by the ones who think they know but don't understand. They fill up their hard disk and wonder why their system stops working. Most of the people I work with learn just enough computer skills to do their job. they have better things to do than read about the latest threats etc. They want me to tell them to download this patch that update or which printer is best for their needs and can I fix their PC to work with the new software without it locking them out. And so on and so on.... Most drivers don't know what an ECU is why should computer users be any different.
16. Mike Hart
Peter Cochrane has hit on a kernel of truth, and has then sought to test the hypotheses by taking things to the extreme. This is something that he is particularly good at and makes for interesting reading, but I would hate to define IT strategy based on his articles!
He has entirely left out other key influences to give the article balance. For example, what is the future for infrastructure support, development, training, and the myriad other roles that are usually catered for by MIS? If he typed his article on the laptop, perhaps he doesn't need anyone to tell him how to "autosave", but when he emailed it in, he seems blind to the way in which the data was transferred and stored. Presumably that transfer and storage was secure, and I also presume that I don't have to spell out the constant one-upmanship battle between white and black hats in the network security arena.
Otherwise, well written and entertaining!
17. Tony Atherton
It seems Mr Cochrane has his own Personal Typing Pool (his PA) So the typing pool is not dead after all.
18. berty
50% unemployment
Let's face it,if most of the companies in this country,and all of the public sector,are run inefficiently.50% of todays jobs could disappear with no loss of revenue.
For a start ..get rid of spreadsheets ..ban them..they're inefficient.Insist on a company wide database and there would be a couple of million people with nothing to do all day.Prime candidates are financial wizards such as accountants.These people spend days on double entry book keeping(why double entry..that was for quills not computers).They take data out of the main computer system ,then bugger about for days with some crappy spreadsheet.Eureka..it balances.Not only can they add up two columns of numbers,they can get them to agree.A skill worthy of loads of money.
19. Richard
Get rid of your IT Dept? I don't think so!
The problem with outsourcing is that the companies I've dealt with that do this only fix the problem - they don't look at the cause so usually it happens again at a later date. Your In-house boys will (normally) try & find out why so they don't have to fix it again.
The other problem is that if you let staff buy their own equipment you stand a good chance of them buying their PC from Currys and paying £1500 for a £500 PC. Can't see a cost saving there myself.
I can see it more heading towards more all rounder IT staff and dropping the first line help desk where they read from a list - now that would save time AND money!
20. Trevor
Intersting, but its unlikely IS departments will vanish, they are more likely to evolve.
I agree many people buy computers to use themselves and "give it a go" but when it fails they all seem to call ME!!! Judging by the frequency of the calls the failures seem to be pretty close together too :) Come to think of it even those consumer items such as VCR's have a reputation of being too complicated for some people.......
Computers may well merge with the environment, but cutting edge technology is still likely to need support and being at the forefront is important to lots of businesses. I suspect Technology departments will continue as the few give support for the new to the many......
21. Phillip
I personal think outsourcing will eventualy come to an end. Staff will get complacent and slack off and wonder why they lost the contract. Directors/Managers will realise that outsourcing is not cost effective to the company as a whole.