By Peter Cochrane, 29 July 2010 11:40
COMMENT
Written in my Jersey hotel and dispatched to silicon.com via a wide-open wi-fi service.
A few weeks ago some kind person at the BBC sent me a CD copy of a TV programme made in about 1995 in which I briefly appeared. I was one of a number of 'experts' positing views on the future of technology, mankind and society.
I just got around to watching the programme and was struck by the streak of negativity and dire warnings of the naysayers and technophobes. Here is a small sample of some of the more risible predictions:
- TV will become the main portal to the internet and not the PC.
- Home shopping won't work because you can't smell fish and meat.
- People will become mindless and isolated zombies talking to machines more than people.
- Information overload will drive people away from the internet.
- The stress generated by the internet will induce people to riot.
- Old people will never use computers.
- Society will become more divided, less well-informed and impossible to govern.
- Technology has no place in education.
- Newspapers will never be replaced.
- Books will be with us forever.
And then there are the recommendations of the same crowd:
- We should close down the internet before it is too late.
- We should destroy all the computers and TV sets.
- We should think carefully and go back to a people-orientated culture.
- We need to build more libraries and restrict access to the internet.
Who were these so-called experts? British and American psychologists, behaviourists, politicians and pundits. Where are these people now? Judging by their age, probably in an even more embalmed state.
I well remember this period because I was often lambasted in the media and in public for my views on technology and society, and especially for any statement on a migration that foresaw a merging of man and machine.
For some reason my vision of technology becoming wearable like a wristwatch or a pair of earrings caused most heat. Well, here we are, with Bluetooth attachments appended to the ear, and iPods and smartphones seen as normal and socially acceptable.
So, 15 years on, I was right and they were wrong. But with the benefit of hindsight I can see I was also pessimistic in 1995. We have actually achieved far more than my wildest predictions suggested.
But where was I far too optimistic?
I really didn't think we would still be putting a cross on a piece of paper to elect a new government, or using credit cards instead of mobile phones, and I really did think we would be in the broadband race instead of out of it.
Comments
There are 22 comments. Join the discussion
1. StuartFawcett
Many great thinkers throughout the ages were actually afraid to bring their ideas forward. The popularists are always looking for support and effectively hold back innovation by refusing to consider ideas with an open mind that might jeopardise their position. Typically the ideas do in time come out though often then in different geographic regions and the advantage passes onto another person with vision. The birthing of ideas is what makes a country great, but just managing the status quo is the stage before downfall. Businesses exploit ideas but then also inhibit them if the thinker time is too tightly controlled. Is it time to redeclare vision over efficiency?
2. karen challinor
"If you want some real pessimism, you can't beat the anti-technology brigade"
and I thought you just waited for me to comment ;-)
3. RichardS
Around that time, I'd published my first wobbly webpages and moved to my second ISP, but I'd never have predicted even my current use of the Internet.
I'd had a delightful spell working with some highly competent people and for managers who encouraged us to experiment with new technologies to solve some really tough business problems.
We achieved amazing things - sometimes to the intense annoyance & jealousy of people who'd not been granted our freedoms.
But, all good thing come to an end: Our manager was promoted and his rule-bound replacement...
4. petercochrane
StuartFawcett = How very true - and throughout the west getting investment for anything new, or anyone to even listen, is near impossible. peter
5. petercochrane
karen challinor = You comments are always welcome! Getting a balance view is also a challenge. Did you notice that those 'crackpot ideas' of the government past that worried you have faded to nothing already! Peter
6. petercochrane
RichardS = It always seems to go that way, but just emulate what he/she did and have courage - go help change the world for the better. Peter
7. karen challinor
peter = "those crackpot ideas of the previous government" are still about, albeit in reduced form and no one talks about them very loudly
for example the home office seems to be trying to change the shape of the ID card scheme to make it somehow acceptable to the coalition and still have it survive the bonfire of the policies, despite all assurances and appearances that the scheme is dead, I am keeping a very close eye on this.
nothing seems to be being done regarding the draconian clauses in the digital economy act although public awareness is raising, OFCOM are still working out how much it will cost you to appeal should they decide to accuse you of copyright infringement and it's still the subscriber who they hit and not the perpetrator
just because it's been announced by the coalition that a particular thing has been announced as going doesn't mean it will go or that if it does go that it will go quickly or quietly
8. Peter C
I don't remember much that was said during a conference I attended in the 1980s but I do remember Bernard Levin's theme about future technology and that was: Whatever you can imagine will happen in the next 5 years it will far surpass that.
He was quite correct.
9. muzza2009
Karen, you are the voice of reason in the cloud* of digital confetti...
*confused citizens thoughts re:con-net or sin-net
Peter, as much as you are a technophobe, I wonder if you could ever cope with being off-line more than 2 minutes? Looking forward to the first big-time internet off the air for a week event.... public services that rely totally on non-human interaction will suddenly *10 their budget for next year (morons).
10. The Naked CIO
Hi Peter - Isn't the whole idea of prognostication part trying to shape opinion and part fortune teller.
A great mentor once said to me - if you think of 10 innovation ideas a day by the end of the week you may have one worthwhile.
The idea about looking forward is trying to realize how we can use the real world to shape our tomorrow.
Here are three predictions from me - I should put down ten to have a shot of any coming true - but I will save your readers the annoyance.
1. Social Networking within 5 years will evolve into the new business centirc app for email, documents and business communications. Unified Networking as a result will be no longer a communications hardware capability owned by Cisco and Telco's but software driven by the the Facebooks of the world.
2. Video Conferencing will have a revival and using modern collaboration tools will actually deliver on the what its potential is - BTW I have been saying this for years.
3. Artificial Intelligence will not at least in the near future, no matter what anyone thinks, have a huge impact on any business environment. Although self learning systems such as IVR and pattern recognition will evolve greatly.
:)
Thanks for the read.
11. karen challinor
the problem with the one out of ten innovative ideas being worthwhile is that the definition of worthwhile is usually the one that says "I can make money out of that"
ideas that could change the world for the better but don't make any individual or group rich in the process tend not to get much support
the internet, for example could unify the people of the planet and do away with government by small groups of elected representatives by allowing everyone to represent themselves
there would be problems yes, but problems can be solved
however this will never happen mainly because no one will get rich in the process
and a few people with power and authority don't want it to happen and are busily building artificial barriers into the internet to prevent nation talking unto nation happening spontaneously
the internet for governments is generally about control of information and how to prevent access
the internet for you and I is about freedom of information and how to allow access
progress and innovation tends to happen for people who want to become rich or wage war
12. The Naked CIO
Karen = I have been following your comments since I first started writing the Naked CIO - and this is the first time that I remember you commenting on the morality of innovation vs the practicality of it.
As much as I probably won't be innovating based on sentimental opinion any time soon - well done as this is important as well and probably not addressed enough today.
13. petercochrane
karen challinor = Bets of all no one is taking a blind bit of notice - and like all nonsense legislation it is disappearing down some obscure drain...Peter
14. petercochrane
Peter C = I like it! :-) Peter
15. petercochrane
muzza2009 = Well, this past week I have been canoeing down a local river, had three bike rides of 5, 12 and 14 miles, I also constructed half a cold frame using railway sleepers (ties) for my wifes garden, and I spent this morning with 5 youngsters showing them how to use a crossbow, longbow and air rifle safely. Of course this turned into quite a competition.
Then there has been all my commercial activities, and I read 20% of a complex maths book, watched a movie on DVD, and just about saw 30% of the news on TV.
Peter
16. petercochrane
muzza2009 = Prognostication is one thing - the outright rejection of +ve advance is another, and wholesale pessimism is plain damaging. By the way AI has taken over in production, trading and control, and thus has already transformed business! Peter
17. petercochrane
The Naked CIO = WHOOPS - SORRY - FINGER TROUBLE: Prognostication is one thing - the outright rejection of +ve advance is another, and wholesale pessimism is plain damaging. By the way AI has taken over in production, trading and control, and thus has already transformed business! Peter
18. petercochrane
karen challinor + The Naked CIO = 1 in 10 is generally very optimistic. 1 in 100 may be worthwhile investing time in, and less than 1% of these is likely to make it big. Peter
19. karen challinor
personally I think it's morelike one in a million ideas or even higher actually makes it into the public awareness
and seriously, Naked CIO, this is the first time I've expounded morality over practicality ?
hmm, I've probably not expressed myself very well in the past then, my apologies
I've always approached problems from the "should you" rather than the "could you" standpoint
and I'm sure I've mentioned the nation unto nation idea before, I think it was on here on an article about social networking
but I probably didn't phrase it in terms of no one getting rich
sorry to hijack there Peter, the floor is yours once more
20. petercochrane
karen challinor = Be my guest! Peter
21. Darren_In_Sussex
Peter, do you agree with those who say technology is developing exponentially and we are headed towards a 'singularity' point, in about 20 to 30 years? (am sure you're familiar with the concept, forgive me if you've answered this elsewhere already).
22. petercochrane
Darren = Agree that technology is advancing exponentially, but I see machine intelligence advancing for slower that the enthusiasts predict. And so I do not see a singularity event in 30 years - far from it! You will find an explanation here in my blog of 8 October 2009, What is intelligence?
I have developed this theory farther now and it will soon be published in the professional literature. The conclusions however remain the same.
A recent conference paper of mine can be found on the BCS site.
Hope this helps, Peter