Leader: ID card dreams and nightmares

A few decades back it was pretty much assumed that we'd all be getting to work via jet-pack and scoffing energy pills rather than meals in the 21st century.

Sadly that dream hasn't come true - at least, not yet. But in its business plan published today, the new Identity and Passport Service (IPS) offered us a glimpse of how 2016 could look - thanks to the ID card project.

The government's up-beat vision of 2016 begins: "IPS has been operating effectively for over 10 years since its creation in 2006". Clearly in this rose-tinted version of the future there are no technical problems, no cost over-runs and no delays to the project.

It goes on: "The success of the National Identity Scheme means that the majority of all UK residents have applied for an ID card and are now registered on the NIR [national identity register]."

This too might be wishful thinking, considering the numbers of refuseniks there could be by the time the cards are finally ready.

It goes on to predict that, by 2016, all major government services and businesses including banks are using the ID card to conduct 400 million verification checks per year.

But no mention of any problems such as false negatives, where the system can't recognise you, or risks such as forgery or hacked cards. Or the cost to business of implementing the card readers they are going to need.

This brave new world is also one where you will probably end up carrying your ID card at all times - not that you have to but just because you want to, the IPS is quick to point out: "The ID card is the same size as a credit card and is convenient, although not compulsory, to carry and use as an everyday proof of identity."

Just as well, because you are likely to need it pretty much all the time.

The IPS adds: "Anyone now undertaking an interview as part of a Jobcentre Plus benefit application, immigration interview, registering with a general practitioner or applying for a mortgage can expect to have their case handled more reliably as a result of the implementation of the National Identity Scheme."

Feeling a bit rough? You're going to need your ID card for that too...

"Access to services, other than emergency services, now involves straightforward registration using the ID card as part of verifying an individual's identity."

You might wonder whether this is a vision of 2016 - or 1984.

Of course, predictions have an unfortunate habit of not coming true - after all, we're still waiting for our jet-packs.

But does the optimism of this government vision of the future reflect the unwise optimism of the government as a whole towards the idea of ID cards?