Software future is open source, claim tech execs

The open-source movement will transform the software business in the next five to 10 years, according to top industry executives speaking at the AO 2005 Innovation Summit at Stanford University.

Ray Lane, a partner at venture capitalist Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, said: "We're building a whole new world in the software industry."

Every application in a proprietary technology environment will become an open-source tool in the coming years, according to Kim Polese, chief executive of SpikeSource, which provides a package of interoperable pre-tested software to CIOs.

Polese said companies will pay for a licence to own open-source tools and that they will also learn to better co-operate with industry rivals to build and adapt open-source applications that work for their businesses.

Stability and security will be other drivers of open-source software, according to Rahul Kapoor, a partner with Morgan Lewis & Bockius. But others on the panel said open source software simply seems more secure because virus writers are more focused on larger pools of users, such as those who rely on Windows.

Lane asked the panelists where companies should go if their open-source technology breaks. Sun Microsystems President Jonathan Schwartz answered that if it's Red Hat's technology, for example, then companies would turn to Red Hat.

"Companies that present you with technology need to provide you with assurances," Schwartz said, adding that the software industry must adopt open standards for it to thrive. "Open standards mean more than open source," said Schwartz.

He pointed to Firefox as an example of a product that's growing popular rapidly because it's simple and easy to use. He noted that it's a side benefit that the program just happens to be open source.

"Why is Firefox being adopted so quickly? Because IE is a lame product. It's not so much about open source - but that's great - but that it works so much better," he said.

Schwartz further noted that services built around open source add value. Yahoo! Search, for example, is free, but the advertising service around it is tremendously valuable, he said.

Rod Smith, VP of emerging technologies at IBM, gave his assessment of the open-source industry over the next 10 years.

"By 2010, or 2015, the business will be very different, and it's going to combine multidisciplinary applications," Smith said. "We're early pioneers of this."

Dawn Kawamoto and Stefanie Olsen write for CNET News.com