By silicon.com, 8 December 2003 17:20
The penguin-toting Linux brigade have been getting themselves in a frenzy in the last few weeks with a number of exciting developments and high-profile big customer wins in the open source arena.
First off Sun Microsystems announced it had won a deal with a Chinese government-backed consortium for an initial half a million deployments of its new Linux-based Java Desktop System, and with the ink barely dry on that contract Sun CEO Scott McNealy declared - loudly and in the general direction of Redmond - that he's gunning for "hundreds of millions" of deployments across China.
And before you could say $25 for a Linux desktop, NHS director general of IT, Richard Granger, announced on Friday that the health service is going to pilot Sun's desktop Linux package as an alternative to Microsoft across a million desktops, saying it could save taxpayers millions of pounds.
Now, far be it for us to spoil the Linux love-in but it's probably worth taking a step back and getting a reality check here. The NHS pilot could just be a stick being used to frighten Microsoft into giving a bigger discount on its software licences, so the jury's still out on that one. And while the China deal is undoubtedly significant, it is hardly surprising given that China is not about to just hand Microsoft the largest market in the world on a plate.
The proof will come with large corporate users, and the evidence to date suggests that while Linux is making huge inroads into the server room, CIOs are still not convinced that Linux is mature enough for the desktop. Despite Microsoft making a stunning mess of introducing its licence changes 18 months ago resulting in many firms threatening to move to Linux, how many actually have? Not many, we'd wager.
But there are signs that it is making a gradual impression, with a survey today by IBM claiming that half of small firms want to replace Windows with Linux. And the development of a true enterprise-class Linux desktop system can only be good for everyone, ensuring technological innovation and genuine competition.
Comments
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1. Andrew S
Within the next 5 years larger businesses and the public sector will almost entirely move over to Linux-based systems. For small businesses and home users the picture is still unclear; these people will probably stay with Windows for longer. However, if the Linux desktop environments, end-user applications, and development tools (such as Omnis Studio, Delphi) improve then desktop PCs will probably be shipping with Linux. Also many mobile device manufacturers, e.g. PDAs/smartphones, are already looking at Linux; there are 1 or 2 devices in Asia that run Linux (e.g. Yopy by G.Mate, the Sharp Zaurus) and this is a growing and volatile market with huge potential. It seems that Linux will be heavily adopted in Asia, Eastern Europe and in many developing countries (note Linux Magazine has just launched in Romania).
It seems the main reasons for choosing Linux are cost (is it cheaper in the long-run) and reliability. Plus it is built from open standards so no one company owns it. A significant factor in the IT industry is the anti-Microsoft feeling, whereas most consumers have no opinion since the OS on the machine is irrelevant. The future of Linux may depend in part on how ‘Linux’ as a whole is marketed to consumers, and the fact that no one ‘owns’ Linux makes this hard to predict, but the big players (e.g. Intel, HP, IBM or the mobile companies) will increasingly promote Linux as a consumer/end-user brand (like Microsoft did with Win95 in 1995). It will be interesting to see how Microsoft reacts over the next 2 years to the 'threat' of Linux. Windows for Linux?
2. anonymous
I have been "playing" with Linux since some of the early versions of RedHat. I have not yet been able to deploy a single workstation without at least one technical issue that resulted in hours of Google searches and what not. I like Linux, but I do not use it on any systems at home or where I work.
Also, as an "industrial" user of PCs and PC-like systems, it should be noted that Windows is a dominant player with the likes of Siemens, Allen-Bradley / Rockwell Automation, Schnieder Automation / Modicon and Invensys all quite firmly in the Windows camp. There are a few smaller companies with Linux offerings and a few really keen users of Linux, but they are few and far between.
I will wait and see.
3. Andrew Clark
Linux needs to overcome some critical problems if it is to become a serious contender in the desktop market.
It needs to be as easy for novices to install and configure as Windows.
Application install and configuration also needs to be simplified so that there is absolutely no need to manually alter scripts.
For an office or home user there is no need to provide a plethora of editors and development tools. A basic home and /or office configuration should be standardised and shipped by default.
Linux has many virtues but until its perceived complexity is tackled and the needs of non-technical users addressed, there remains no credible alternative to Windows.
4. Kim James
some five years ago now a friend in the IT industry convinced us to use Linux on our server. OK so long as he was around to continually sort out little problems. In the end we gave it up when he moved away and went back to Windows - reluctantly.
5. Sean Farley
I would be delighted to migrate my small business over to Linux. However, until iether AutoCAD or VectorWorks is ported to Linux, I have no choice but windows or mac