COMMENT
With mobile phones becoming ever more capable, they will soon start to threaten the PC paradigm, says Martin Brampton. This will pit software giant Microsoft against handset giant Nokia, a battle whose outcome will have significant ramifications for all of IT.
The struggle for domination of the software powering mobile phones has barely started. 2005 could well be the year in which it gets hot. Constant evolution of the technology is enabling changes that are likely to be far reaching.
For several reasons, the mobile phone is set to become the most influential portable electronic device. Technology is one. While the constant improvement of every part of the modern computer seems now to have relatively little impact on the desktop, it is making a huge difference for the phone. You can now fit substantial processing power and a good deal of memory into your pocket, along with decent battery life.
With half-gigabyte memory cards now readily available for well under £50, some pundits have suggested we will soon carry round all our important data. When we find a computer, it will just be a device to manage the data we already have in a phone.
Maybe - but the phone itself will soon be powerful enough to do the job itself with perhaps some optional add-ons. Moreover, carrying the whole of your computer software in your pocket may be technically feasible, but the complexities imposed by the intertwining of hardware is liable to make this solution slow to progress.
Another factor is the desirability of connectivity. Wi-Fi hotspots are proving popular. But if you can remember it at all, the history of the Rabbit phone strongly suggests the ubiquitous network always wins out over the hotspot. 3G will improve bandwidth greatly and is likely to enable the operators to compete strongly against commercial Wi-Fi providers.
Phones are steadily squeezing the PDA market. As reviewers increasingly favour phones with productivity applications over PDAs with phones, the justification for the existence of the PDA will melt away. Neat phone add-ons such as Bluetooth folding keyboards are emerging to rival all the advantages PDAs have held in the past.
The residual and most vital issue will be the extent to which people continue to lug around the so-called laptop computer. At present, both phone and laptop are often carried but on occasions when one is left behind, it is always the laptop, never the phone. The more the phone can do, the less temptation there will be to bother with the laptop.
Meanwhile the office environment is slowly but steadily moving towards thin-client deployments, with all the real action taking place on servers. The direct costs may be higher but the improved manageability of this approach is the decisive factor. Not only is infrastructure management extremely costly, the centralised model is much more favourable to rapid change. The laptop fits uncomfortably into this environment, presenting all kinds of security and management problems.
So some time soon we can expect a titanic struggle, with the key players being Nokia and Microsoft. At stake is control of a future IT environment that is polarised between fixed thin-client devices in office locations and highly portable standalone phones with extensive computer functionality.
Microsoft seems certain to play a substantial role in the stationary systems, although Linux will also be important. Despite recent setbacks, Nokia has an immensely strong position in mobile handsets. Some handset makers are keen to work with Microsoft to create smart phones. Others will be chary, noticing the fate of many of the PC makers, including IBM.
Nokia has so far stuck firmly with software maker Symbian, while implementing links to the Microsoft desktop. Neither party has made much headway with providing tools to manage a large population of powerful computing devices that are constantly on the move. Innovation is needed and looks most likely to come from third parties that grab the opportunity.
If Microsoft wins, it will be the dominant force in a greatly expanded computing and communications environment. Nokia will be marginalised as a handset maker for the consumer who has only weak links with large organisations. If Nokia wins, the whole computing environment will be changed.
Comments
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1. Julien Boyreau
"Not only is infrastructure management extremely costly, the centralised model is much more favourable to rapid change."
This affirmation is TRAGICALLY WRONG if you consider that innovation and change are barely never hoped or pushed BY the people that have the power in this centralised model : SysAdmin. Innovation in the centralized server based model is a All-or-nothing process : that failure emphasises the importance of P2P decentralized model when innovation comes from USERS LOCALLY and can SPREAD if it is good.
Let's face it : who has carefully and centrally planed the massive deployment of RSS through the Web ??? A : NOBODY !!!!
Just a process of LOCAL MUTATION and viral communication-based DISSEMINATION thanks to the power of the web !!
except from this, your other point is great : I think we will see a typical "disruptive innovation process" (described by Christiensen for Hard Drives) where "Cigarette Box Size" Computer will replace the need for bulked "hardcore gamer" Portable PC. BUT I would say : LET's ACCELERATE the move by :
Supporting Ultra Portable COmputer (OQO or Sony U move)(UPC)
Breaking the screen from the central unit to enhance battery
Moving to new ultra service based software system (OSGi)
Let's pray together and happy new year
Julien Boyreau
http://www.u-blog.net/syd1980
2. anonymous
What if it is a draw?? Personally I think it's healthy to have RIM, Linux, PalmOS, Symbian and M$ all vying in the marketplace. At least then there won't be such a monopoly of one system like there is on the PC. The mobile device is a much more personal unit than a PC and consequently variety is needed to meet different demands of different people!!
I'm all for a draw!!!
3. anonymous
I believe that laptops and smart phones will both evolve into thin clients. Therefore most people will have a personal server, probably virtual, that provides for all their devices and which resides either in their home or hosted by some service provider.
Whoever can create the best infrastructure for this server platform will be the winner. I don't think MS or Nokia is a good candidate. I would think IBM and Sun have a better chance to dominate this space.
4. Gail Purvis
Have had Nokia 9210 for 3 years. Spend most of my time showing what it can do to the curious. Can't wait for the upgrade, now available in the US but not yet in Europe (sigh)!
But also notice that Swatch's recent Paparazzi Watch is only on sale in the US because it's done a deal with Microsoft for 'current' news, food etc updates. Not such a big sigh!
Going to be interesting to see if software is going to win against design habit..all three of my kids who moved from Nokia (for the phone craze) have promptly abandonned digipics to return to the accustomed ergonomics of the Nokia design.
5. Geoff Sloan
Wot, no Palm? Is Palm/PalmOne going to be the Apple Mac of this sector? I love my Treo 600, so I hope not...
6. Simon Moore
Whilst the thread of this article is valid. There are some points I disagree with: the analogy of the Rabbit system with wi-fi is poor as one was for voice - which is needed everywhere, and one is for data which is needed when you are stationary and want to do some processing. I use the term processing for when users will want a large screen, want to type lots of words, add details to a speadsheet, or draw diagrams. Basically provide computing power. The PDA is not in the near future going to address this need. Moreover, why would I use the expensive 3G network with limited bandwidth (cf wi-fi) when I am already sat in an airport lounge or starbucks, or McDonalds etc etc with a hotspot in it. The PDA/ phone as described works for reading emails (not attachments in this powerpoint driven business world) a little web browsing, and diary look ups, but whilst this is incredibly useful it is limited. I am gadget literate but its the PDA that often goes unused, not my laptop. When I need access to my office the PDA doesnt cut it.
I think a better anaology is that of Iridium vs the mobile phone, whilst Iridium was global it lost out to the terrestially tethered mobile cell phone because the cheaper and faster bandwidth mobile met the needs for most of the people most of the time. In data terms the cheaper faster hotspots will meet the needs of most of the people, most of the time not 3G. What 3G will offer is at last a high quality voice service. not sure about up-time when mobile but we cant have everthing.
But will Nokia and MSoft fight it out over PDA/ phone software, undoubtedly. Who will win, I dont know. But there are other players out there, and some probably undiscovered. My personal feeling is that as long as my device has a browser I dont care - but this favours Msoft.
7. Dean Bubley
There's quite a lot about this article that I violently disagree with, including the original assertion that Microsoft and Nokia are each others' most important rivals in the mobility space.
In my view, Microsoft is not particularly interested in the devices themselves - it's interested in getting as many end-points (PC, phone, server, toaster, whatever) to work with its .NET application architecture. Its main strategic rivals are Sun (Java) and IBM.
Nokia (and by extension Symbian) is trying to use handset software to bolster its handset market share, primarily by appealing to mobile operators looking to put new revenue-generating applications on their customers' phones. Its main rival is the internal OS & app stacks used by most handset manufacturers, or the various 3rd-party solutions. The end-to-end application architecture argument is secondary at best, mostly aimed at consumers, and better articulated by competitors like Qualcomm with BREW.
The Rabbit analogy/rebuttal for WiFi is a 3-year old argument which is now largely irrelevant, except for those optimists predicting massmarket VoWLAN in hotspots (Although PHS has worked well enough in Japan and China). The main point missed is that 3G (& cellular generally) is a service-provider only network. Computing devices will have WiFi by default for use at home/work (thanks, Intel). 3G also doesn't work very well indoors, which is why various companies are desperately trying to extend cellular services over WiFi in-building.
With regard to laptops - it's a lot easier for businesses to manage and control applications & security of a laptop than a smartphone. Not to mention battery life, screen size etc.
8. francis
Handsets that synch with base computers already provide a security risk to corporate networks. As they acquire more computing functions and are used in more ways, that will increase. Not to say the handset won't displace the laptop in a thin client base environment, but risk won't be a factor. By the way, I'm reviewing an HTC Harrier on EVDO and I'm stunned at how _capable_ it is -- so I can see your suggested scenario playing out in Microsoft's favor, especially when the CE handset is kitted out with a full range of accessories (wifi card, extra memory, etc).