By Jo Best, 5 April 2005 14:20
NEWS The market for mobile messaging is set to nearly double over the coming years - but high prices will ensure video messaging remains niche among mobile users.
According to analyst house Forrester, traffic from mobile messaging will grow by 92 per cent over the next five years. The boom, however, may not prove music to operators' ears; the analysts are predicting revenues will only grow by 10 per cent, from 19bn to reach 21bn by the end of 2010.
The growth in traffic will come from text-happy youngsters as 10- to 15-year-olds are increasingly starting a trend for mobile phone ownership at a young age. Around 80 per cent of teens now use texting services, the report found, boosting the average number of texts sent to over 70 a month.
However, despite more sore thumbs to come in Europe, SMS (short message service) revenues will fall, Forrester predicts, continuing a pattern that has seen text revenues drop 65 per cent between 2001 and 2005.
Multimedia message service, or MMS, often regarded as the poor cousin of mobile data, will see its revenues explode by contrast - growing ninefold to 5bn by 2010, partially due to a considerably higher cost per message.
IMPS - instant messaging with presence services - will be the star performer in the next five years, however, growing to account for eight per cent of traffic before the end of the decade and outstripping both mobile email and video messaging in growth terms.
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1. Douglas Lau
Base on what findings to deduce the prediction?
SMS, MMS, and IM with PM are alternative communication forms to the voice. The popularity of one method is because it fits to the purpose for communication to the users. Japanese use SMS to communicate when taking train(it is their culture not to disturb the others.) Kids use SMS, I assume, because parents and teachers do not know they are chatting with someone.
Then what about MMS... is it for leisure, chatting, or business use???? It gives more color and sound to the message. It gives lives to the message.
And IM with PM. Someone says that WiFi enable mobile phone is expected to occupy only 10% in 2009. 3G network is the most convenient one for the IM transmission. But the value of IM with PM shall be higher than the cost incurred on using 3G. As the investment on 3G is huge, operators will not price it too low to squeeze the ROI. If IM with PM is really a star in the future, WiFi/WiMax or wireless hotspots network is necessary for the proliferation of the IM with PM.