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By Martin Brampton, 5 September 2005 16:25

COMMENT Given that tech successes often come from the most unexpected places, Martin Brampton points to an up-and-comer that could just be the next best thing to a 3G killer app.

Lord Birt thinks the future of television will be determined by technology. There is probably something in that, and he knows a lot more about the world of television than I do. All the same, technologically driven developments often involve unexpected twists and turns.

Some things seem clear. Consumers often move more slowly than pundits. And they are often understandably confused by technical developments. So while technologists talk of High Definition TV, buyers struggle with inconsistent claims of what counts as HDTV ready and what difference it makes at what screen size.

More fundamentally, the future is frequently not a simple projection of the past. Nor is it necessarily simple. There is a widespread assumption that every kind of portable entertainment will be channelled into the ubiquitous mobile phone. Yet some things fit better there than others.

Nobody predicted the massive popularity of text messaging, although it is a convenient facility that works well with the small mobiles that have proved most attractive. Likewise, the addition of a simple but effective camera has proved highly popular, even if consumers have been less willing to send their snapshots over the mobile networks than the operators would like.

All the same, predictions of massive use of video seem overstated. While the television salesmen offer larger and larger screens, with the promise of higher definition in the future, it is unclear exactly what sort of market there is for video on a tiny screen. Some concession has been made to the difficulties faced by mobile video with talk of 'mobisodes' designed specially for people on the move.

An intriguing development is the application of the comic book format to the mobile phone. Once the idea is suggested, it is extraordinarily obvious how suitable it is. Many mobile phones now have a colour screen not far from the size of a typical frame in a comic. The bandwidth requirement for a series of static pictures is far lower than that for video, especially if the text is handled with ingenuity.

Not only does this not stretch the technological boundaries, it offers large profit margins for the operators. Text messaging has brought huge revenues but costs the operators very little because of its extremely low bandwidth requirement. Comics likewise offer something that consumers may well be willing to buy, yet can be provided at low cost.

Maybe this is not the killer application so long hoped for by 3G advocates but it might well be the next best thing. Many of the schemes that were supposed to provide the operators with new revenues have so far proved unpopular or impractical - or the benefit has accrued elsewhere. Any new twist that can significantly boost the use of mobiles will be enormously welcome.

Sony is rushing into the market for mobile manga comics. It is planning to double the number of titles offered, to become the largest provider in Japan. While much that has been released so far has been reworking of old material, quantities of new work are now being commissioned. Basic pictures are being supplemented with pop-ups and vibrations during action scenes. Sound is likely to be added soon.

There is no reason comic book downloads will not be popular outside Japan. Although maybe different sectors will predominate? Will stories styled after the popular and influential work of Raymond Briggs be influential? Or might we even see the return of Dan Dare and the Mekon in a 21st century manifestation?