NEWS
Traditional broadband players and mobile operators will be giving WiMax a wide berth for the years to come, new research predicts.
According to a report by Capgemini, a number of significant factors including cost, speed and the uncertain regulatory environment will serve to hobble WiMax.
The consultancy predicts that the millions of pounds spent on 3G licences, alongside the increased number of base stations needed to run a network, will deter mobile operators from investing in the long range wireless broadband technology.
Cost will also put off would-be broadband providers, as the falling cost of DSL access – down by over 20 per cent in 2003 and 2004 – will make it hard for pure play WiMax companies to enter the broadband market.
For mobile WiMax to become profitable, Capgemini said, providers will need to sign up a third of current data card users – that's 300,000 individuals.
WiMax proponents will additionally have to resolve issues of speed, the report said. With current speeds on WiMax networks between 1 and 3Mbps, the technology is still matched by HSDPA-upgraded 3G networks, which offer speeds of 1.8Mbps. Lack of bandwidth will also rule out the option of triple play providers using the technology.
However, the consultancy does predict a future for WiMax, serving communities outside the reaches of wired infrastructure. China, for example, could possibly take up the technology as 60 per cent of its population are not currently connected.
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1. Richard N. (Dick) Kaufman
I agree with the writer about inadequate data speeds with WiMAX for the Triple play, however it is my belief that the success for WiMAX is with new operators using the technology for a mobile solution, and not necessarily for the additional delivery of low speed data.
Keys to success for new ISP operators will be in delivering the mobile solution using the promised low cost infrastructure, 5.8 GHz ISM spectrum, and low priced VoIP minutes to subscribers.
One concern that I have is if the technology will be able to work properly in the 5.8 GHz spectrum. I have assumed that the technology has considered the problems inherent in an unlicensed spectrum. Operators like my self are not in the US and 5.8 GHz is licensed spectrum here.
I believe that existing cellular companies will have a hard time competing with Mobile WiMAX because they must keep their usage prices high enough to service their capital debt and higher cost spectrum. This high debt came from paying large amounts for licenses and capital equipment.