By Peter Cochrane, 14 September 2009 16:09
COMMENT
Compiled on BA 215 flying London to Boston and dispatched to silicon.com from my harbour hotel via a rather poor and expensive wi-fi service
Continually promising to deliver what the limits of physics say can't be done is no way for an industry to operate. The outcome can only be customer disappointment, scepticism and commercial damage, but the telecom industry continues to do it anyway!
Around 20 years ago I was lambasted by industry, politicians and commentators alike for declaring that 3G was likely to be a commercial failure and unlikely to meet published projections on data transmission. Since that time I have been less than vocal on the topic but it seems to me I was spot on for reasons that were obvious at the time, and remain obvious today.
Unfortunately for the industry, and I have to say, giving me absolutely no pleasure, it seems I was right in spades. Every 3G mobile operator is having a hard time achieving a good ROI, and the innovation space has been taken over by those operating on the periphery of the industry. Even worse, users will not abide by the rules and increasingly call the shots. For example; the number of iPhones operating on networks other than the one they were intended is reckoned to be around 40 per cent or more, and the vast number of applications and widgets come from outside the industry.
So how about the delivery of bits - data services. What did industry promise, what do they promise today, and what is the reality?
Promised at the development phase = Up to 15Mbps
Commercially offered today = Up to 7Mbps
Actuality = Mostly less than 2Mbps (according to me!)
The 15 and 7Mbps are close to the published figures across the Western world, while the 2Mbps figure is one I have derived during my travels across Europe and North America. I have been logging on using 3G via different networks to establish a set of representative performance figures. The results are shown in the graph below and clearly demonstrate the difference between promise, advertising, and this user's experience.
I now have to qualify my findings as follows: with one 3G provider I could never get higher than 200kbps and so I removed them from my study which only includes the biggest and most popular of networks. So my results represent the best I could get, and had I included the worst players, my conclusions would be significantly worse.
For sure you can't run roughshod over the laws of physics, and to get anything like the advertised 3G data rate you would have to sit on top of the cell tower! The inverse power law, plus noise and interference (and more), all limit the data rate we can reasonably expect. And for sure there was never a hope of achieving the figures promised at the development phase. But the business is about selling expectations and not the truth. Unfortunately, the backlash can be very damaging, but they continue time and time again despite warnings and an accumulated experience and knowledge. Ho hum!
Comments
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1. anonymous
Uncommon
2. George
The picture is pretty similar (if a little faster) with ADSL, yet somehow the advertisers get away with this.
3. Harry Rogers
What a beautiful demonstration of the real world experience for mobile data users. I always felt it was unlikely that I am particularly unlucky or have some other technical glitch that results in poor data rates. It must be time the service providers were called to account for their blatant misinformation.
4. Peter Cochrane
Harry = As a general rule we always assume 'it is us' and our fault when things don't perform as advertised. Mostly - nothing could be further from the truth.
What is interesting is that it seems to be more or less general world wide - with a few exceptions. Look out for my next video blog out of Woods Hole USA. Peter
5. Peter Cochrane
Anonymous = Huh?? Peter
6. Peter Cochrane
George = Amazing isn't it - the power of small print and political collaboration! Peter
7. John Sniadowski
Add it to the list of broken promises such as Powerline data!
Unfortunately people at the top of the communications industry have a habit of asking questions to get the answers they want to hear.
In other sectors the weights and measures people would take a keen interest in the rice packet labelled 500g and then found the contents to be 500 grains of rice. The lines defence trotted out would be "but it says 500g"
Asking the right question and never correctly interpreting the answer seems to be today's black art practised by too many in the industry who should know better!
8. Louis Chua
Hi Peter,
In Singapore, StarHub is offering up to 21Mbps for mobile broadband, and data usage is growing so incredibly fast. Moreover, StarHub does not even sell iphones...
So I can't agree with your self-congratulatory prediction.
Of course, if you insist on "3G" only, then you may be right, cos Singapore had already moved on to HSPA+.
What we need now is really good batteries & higher efficiency solar panels, and we'll be on our way to wireless utopia. :)
9. Ant Evans
3G performance is poor and variable, six years into the experiment. The information failure that means users still have no idea what quality or value to expect, is pervasive. This should be no surprise. First, it would be mighty surprising if mobile services were marketed by engineers. Second, regulators have failed to step in to mandate service quality standards (not quality; standards). Third, we face the same information void in use - no real sense of the quality of the signal, no fault tolerance on the client, no real coverage maps, and no info on how to improve your signal. Second last, carriers have underinvested in their IP networks since the glory days of WAP, as evidenced by the persistent differential between peak and off-peak performance. I think they thought we wouldn't notice. Last, no private third party has seen enough of an opportunity to provide any of this missing stuff, afaik. What else could possibly go wrong?
10. anonymous
Peter, It isn't only (even?) the Laws of Physics affecting throughput...
My partner's "3" dongle was just last night showing 5-bars of signal-strength, connected at "3.6Mb" (it always says that) yet 3's own stats window showed appalling throughput of a maximum of 100Kbs.
This is blatent throttling by 3, as I was connected to several different web sites, run by un-connected organisations, so I'm confident that the restriction wasn't at the data sources.
This was further ratified by observing data transfer over time; the data came in short bursts, seperated by relatively long periods of 0.0 bytes per second, suggesting some sort of "round robin" allocation of resource to my channel by 3 themselves.
11. anonymous
As per my previous Anon post:
Uncommon 'Sense' - As in this makes perfect sense; Peter, I would expect you to understand the reference to your own works!
Great blog again. The reality of modern wireless is far from the utopian vision being sold. Can anyone vouch for 'enterprise' level connectivity speed/throughput conditions?
12. anonymous
3G - "it ain't what its said to be"
Thank you for confirming this reality.
All that crap about location location location I found to be just that - as like you - but in Australia, I found the performance to be in the range you specified - a lot less than the promise and the hype.
13. Wilson
Louis - StarHub may advertise and sell 21Mbs via HSPA but is that really what the consumer is receiving? Even StarHub's website admits that this is only a "theoretical maximum" - pretty much proving Peter Cochrane's point.
14. Louis Chua
Hi Wilson,
As it may, the consistent throughput may not reach theoretical limit of 21Mbps, but maintaining at 15Mbps and beyond is definitely possible.
Which is way better than the less than 2 Mbps that Peter lamented seeing all over Americas and Europe.
Of course, we may still see the same piece being written if Peter is based in Singapore. But at least, he would have the luxury of complaining about not getting his 21Mbps, instead of his present miserly 7Mbps! :)
15. Stuart Fawcett
Its amazing what people will promise us to have us part with our cash or gain position.
Its also amazing how the human race is typically so trusting.
Perhaps Ofcom should use your clear graphical approach to educate users of the reality and so balance the providers claims.
It’s a complete marketing monopoly when I can’t have access to the “Reality figures”, can’t try before I buy, and then can’t complain as the small print exempts the provider from actually delivering the promised service.
16. Muzz
Universal truth1: the more complex the service is under the hood/bonnet, the more weasely the small print - try a outsource T+C for simplicity (all laugh now).
Universal truth2: the more simple the interface for the user the more ignorant they are as to exactly what goes on. Is this any excuse to pull the wool over a customers eyes? Hell yes... thats what sales+marketing is. High tech makes this much easier.
Many websites have user experience on 3G (blogs etc), and yet people still moan; did they bother to read them? Perhaps few of the moaners ever read the entire T+C, and/or understood all of it / or garnered an independent opinion (even if it is a mate who has a bit more experience).
Caveat emptor. Don't like whats on offer - go elsewhere.
As for "Trust me, I'm your supplier?" Maybe a quart bottle of snake oil might clear up your little problem sir/madam?
17. Peter Cochrane
John = In my experience at the the top of these companies you now find accountants and marketeers. There are never any engineers or technologists....and so we get what we get ...little understanding and accountability! Peter
18. Peter Cochrane
Louis = I'd be really interested to hear your experience of actuality over a few months. How much bandwidth do you actually get? I was in Singapore a few weeks ago and connectivity, fixed (ADSL) and mobile (3G), was very poor and not as good as I experience in much of the EU. BUT the planned broadband sounds impressive. Please ping me back with numbers when you can. Peter
19. Peter Cochrane
Ant = A nice summary of the reality! Peter
20. Peter Cochrane
Anonymous Midlands = Hmm - multiple mechanisms at work including poor network design and congestion methinks! Not a good experience and not much use. Peter
21. Peter Cochrane
Anonymous UK = Many thanks for the support - pleased you liked it. I also like all these follow-on observations. Peter
22. Peter Cochrane
Anonymous Sydney = Thanks for this confirmation - I haven't been down to Oz for a few years....but I must do so soon. Peter
23. Peter Cochrane
Wilson = Thanks! Peter
24. Peter Cochrane
Stuart = This is exactly why I set about doing my own survey - you just cannot believe what is published by operators or government. Both are bounded by political and marketing Bull S***. And in such a regime the customer experience comes last....as does the truth. Peter
25. Peter Cochrane
Muz = There is nothing else on offer...yet! Peter
26. Louis Chua
Hi Peter, a slight caveat, 21Mbps is only available for postpaid subscribers, so, I would imagine that you would have accessed only to the prepaid version when in Singapore.
As for actuality, unfortunately, base station upgrade is still forever ongoing process for all the telcos in Singapore. There will still be blindspots and low coverage areas. But achieving a constant 9Mbps aboveground should not be an issue. May take a while before 3G underground coverage is achieved though. Limited by our Tube's design...