Cisco: Move to IPv6 - IPv4 time bomb is ticking

NEWS Studies show that there are far fewer internet addresses available than we think, a senior Cisco engineer told silicon.com sister site CNETAsia last week. His warning adds fuel to a debate over how much time is left before the internet has to switch from the current IPv4 (Internet Protocol version 4) system to IPv6, an exercise which is expected to cost billions in the long term in hardware and software upgrades. Other experts have said that it may take as long as 20 years before the existing address pool is used up and warn against doomsday scenarios. However, Cisco's own findings show that the deadline may be closer than we think. "The theoretical limit to current IPv4-based addresses is four billion but the practical limit on the number of connected devices is actually 250 million," said Uwe Fisher, a systems manager and engineer with Cisco. Quoting engineering study RFC3194, Fisher said the real world limit falls far short of the theoretical cap because of how addresses are administered globally. As an example, he said 10-digit telephone numbering system in theory can number up to 10 billion phones but in real life it is never the case as certain numbers need to be reserved. A 2002 Cisco study of address consumption shows that already two-thirds of the available pool has been used up, with only around five years of capacity left. Fisher said the explosive growth of internet-enabled devices, ranging from handhelds, automobiles, household appliances to airplanes, will accelerate shrinking of the available pool of IPv4-based internet addresses. Citing analyst statistics, he said close to 20 million gadgets such PDAs and tablet PCs will be connected to the web by 2004. The urgency of the situation has prompted governments to mandate moves to IPv6, said Fisher, a systems manager for Cisco's NSITE laboratories in Asia-Pacific and Japan. In Singapore, Fisher said Cisco is in discussions with some local companies regarding IPv6 trials and some Japanese firms like NTT are already looking to test the technology at Cisco's NSITE lab in Singapore, which was unveiled last Wednesday. NSITE (Networked Solutions Integration Test Engineering) labs are used by Cisco to test and refine complex networking systems for its customers in conditions which resemble actual commercial deployments. The networking giant said it has invested close to US$40 million in equipment in the new facility, which was moved here from Sydney. Besides IPv6, Cisco said this lab will also focus on advanced technologies such as voice and video integration and service provider VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) systems. "It's never too early to invest in a new technology. We're not hyping IPv6 but companies need to have a good roadmap for the transition." he told CNETAsia. Echoing his views, Bill Chang, Cisco's regional managing director for South Asia, said companies should not wait for a particular technology to become mainstream before taking the leap. "Companies have to move if they want to differentiate themselves. If they wait, commoditisation will set in and price erosion will follow," he stressed. However, others feel the problems with IPv4 have been overstated, mostly for commercial and political reasons. Paul Wilson, director general of APNIC, the authority in charge allocating and registering internet resources in the region, has said that warnings about the impending shortage of addresses should be met with some scepticism. Based on the current consumption pattern, there is still 10 or more years of life left in IPv4, he said. Bodies in Asia and elsewhere are moving to IPv6 for various reasons. The US Department of Defense has stipulated a move to the more secure IPv6 by 2008. Department acquisitions taking place after October of this year must be IPv6-compatible in order to help the military gear up for the transition. In Asia, the governments of Japan, Korea and China have already invested significantly in IPv6 technology in recent years. For example, Japan has a government-imposed deadline to upgrade its information technology sectors to run on IPv6 by 2005. Winston Chai writes for CNETAsia.