NEWS At least one sector of the tech market is hearing the sound of cash registers ringing as the recovery rumbles on - telecoms.
Analyst firm IDC predicts that the telecoms market will ring up more than $1tn - yes, that's one trillion dollars - of spending in the course of 2004. According to IDC's Worldwide Telecommunication Black Book the sector as a whole will enjoy growth 4.4 per cent greater than in 2003.
The driver for the upturn will, of course, be data services. Instead of the usual MMS and WAP-based offerings, IDC's pinning its predictions on the higher end of the data market - saying that IP-based services, such as broadband web access and IP VPNs, will lead the way. Consumers' hunger for data will see revenues from data services rise by 16 per cent year-on-year and bring in a quarter of all revenues. The upward trend will continue in the coming years, with $375bn to be spent globally this year.
However, the old skool is not to be trifled with. Rena Bhattacharyya, programme manager for world telecoms markets at IDC, said in a statement: "The voice market will continue to be a key part of the industry and will generate more than two-thirds of the industry's revenue throughout the forecast period."
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1. Richard Ashford
Everyone is saying "data" is the cashcow - however, this is based on extremely overpriced data services.
Growth will definitely come here - but expotential growth will only arrive on the back of significant price cuts.
The current estimates seem to be based on the current prices for data services and that consumers will just swallow it - whatever. That's not going to happen.
Growth will be slower than all these projections. Either fewer people at the higher cost, or more people, but at lower cost.
Did data services suddenly bring vast profits to fixed-lined telephony in the early days of the internet? No - consumers expected it cheaper and cheaper - and finally unmetered fixed price - the same will be true of mobile telephony.
2. Carl Davis
IDC is very safe in saying services like broadband web access and IP VPN will lead the way. The only significant marketing is in these two areas. No great inroads will be made in other IP service areas until significant cooperation is seen between the IP service providers and the carriers. The support systems for the IP market are just as diverse as those for the voice market and too few vendors are following the IP industry's standards. These standards may be young, but they are right for the new IP based products that are being fielded or are on the drawing boards.