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By silicon.com, 17 May 2004 17:15

Are we ramping up for another dot-com boom?

Note the following evidence...

A big internet name, Google, is on the verge of a billion-dollar-plus IPO. Some are comparing this to Netscape's offering in 1995, the accepted beginning of the 1990s internet gold rush.

Thanks to Google and the relatively healthy stock market, stock options are once again seen as something that may have value.

We have a buzzword - social networking. Sites such as Friendster, Orkut and Tribe are garnering attention as the latest-and-greatest business model. They link you with friends of friends (and friends of friends of friends) to make social or business contacts. These sites are not only attracting users, they're raking in millions from venture capitalists.

And speaking of VCs, two Silicon Valley-based venture capitalists have started a $250m fund to purchase and revive start-ups that were bought a few years ago and have been neglected by their owners.

Inherent in all this is one thing: Everyone wants another boom. Who likes a bust, with its layoffs and cutbacks? Bring back the boozy bashes and designer-decorated offices, the instant billionaires and inflated salaries.

Things look brighter for IT than a year or two ago, certainly. But just because you want it, doesn't mean it's real. In other words: Let's not force it.

That would only lead us to repeat the same painful cycle again - the high high, the low low, like a drug addict that just can't break the cycle.

That's not to say something isn't happening. But let it be what it is - maybe a subtler, slower climb upward. Let it be based on actual earnings and profits, not on hype and fluff. Because only then will it last and will we all be able to wake up five years from now not only with a somewhat fatter wallet but also with better products, a personal life intact - and no hangover.