NEWS George W Bush is heading for a surprise landslide victory in next week's US Presidential elections, if online betting patterns are to be believed.
Although US opinion polls are still finding it hard to separate Bush from his Democratic Party challenger John Kerry, punters using online betting exchange Betfair have overwhelmingly backed Dubya.
Betfair's latest figures show £2.3m has been wagered on Bush, putting him on 60 per cent, while Kerry has attracted only £680,000 of bets. Bush has been backed down to 1/5 to stay in office while punters can still get odds of 2/1 on Kerry to win.
Betfair claims its betting patterns are a more accurate indication of election results than the opinion polls, having correctly predicted Australia's prime minister John Howard to secure a surprise comfortable victory in last month's general election.
Mark Davies, director of communications at Betfair, said opinion polls only canvas a small percentage of the population who have no real incentive to provide accurate information.
"In contrast, Betfair's prices are based on people who are prepared to put their money where their mouth is," he said in a statement. "Our figures have proved to be an amazingly accurate indicator at both the Australian general election last month and the California Governor's election last year. As a result, we're sure George Bush will be pleased to hear that Betfair's sharp-minded punters are backing him to the hilt."
Comments
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1. Don
These people are nuts.There are a lot of pissed off people here DESPITE WHAT THE CONSERVATIVE MEDIA IS REPORTING. If Bush
wins I'm leaving. I could not tolerate another for years of this administration.
IT'S KERRY ALL THE WAY .
2. Piet Opperman
So gamblers vote for Bush. Makes sense. What doesn't make sense is extrapolating it to the general population.
3. Mark SPLINTER
This is a horrific publicity stunt from Betfair, a total perversion of democracy, and statistics, and I wish opinion polls and speculation and weather reports were banned so we would have to make up our own minds rather than constantly being bombarded by predictions.
No wonder people don't vote, the damn result comes out before the election!
Predictions change outcomes.
4. anonymous
The main reason for voting for Kerry seems to be not liking Bush -- not a sound political reason. Put your money where your mouth is, then, and if you vote for Kerry - bet on Kerry!
5. Bruce Barrow
The comment "gamblers vote for Bush" sort of misses the point.....
True, it is unlikely that anyone would back Bush to win and then go and vote Kerry, but for every person that backs Bush, there is someone "laying the bet". This means that someone else is in the transaction, and they are taking a bet in the hope that Bush loses. They just don't think he will, as shown by the odds.
Oh, and these online exchanges are often more about making money than getting the result right - lots of people try and just play the margin: backing at 3-1 (say) and then laying at 2-1 (obviously hoping that the market will go that way and their bet will be taken). That way, they make a profit - albeit usually a small one - whoever wins.
So the correct (I think) inference is as follows:
* Gamblers believe they can make money by backing Bush into 'short'.
* They're (probably) not doing this out of political allegiance/ preference.
* It is still a cheap publicity stunt by Betfair (IMHO).
6. anonymous
I'll bet you the betters on Bush
end up on their tush
and Bush supporters with egg on their face.
Then the world will be a better place.
Madame Sonia Sees All Knows All
7. anonymous
I don't know what media Don reads/sees, but after several generations of liberal brainwashing in our schools, universities, and print and television media, it's actually quite rare to find the "CONSERVATIVE MEDIA" of which he writes. (Of course, as a teacher, he may not see the forest, being among the trees.)
8. Eagle Greene
There is no reason for a person with an ounce of common sense to even consider voting for Kerry.
The man either can't or won't tell the truth about anything. It is next to impossible for him to make any kind of decision..
What a shame it would be for all of us if he creeped his slimy way into the Whitehouse..
Eagle
http://www.daily-watch.com/life
9. anonymous
I bet this betting is as accurate as stock market in predicting future direction of economy. Tens of thousands of people putting their hard earned cash on line has to be more reliable than a call on the phone where the callee has no incentive to give truthful answers.
10. John Blake
Markets of any kind are "complex dynamic systems". Given "high liquidity" (a requisite number of active participants) plus volume (large proportional turnover), various powerful statistical rules apply, irrespective of what participants are "really" thinking. What they are DOING is indulging profit-making incentives to turn a buck, not "voting", because ballot-casting is not an exchange relationship.
From about 1888 to 1940, Wall Street typically maintained quondam "futures" markets in political contracts. Concensus views failed only once, in 1916, when an anomalous California county skewed that State's electoral vote to Wilson by a minuscule fraction of one percent, i.e. the national count could easily have gone the other way.
No-one maintains that there is a cause-and-effect relation, as such, between "recreational" trading and substantive matters of policy. BUT just as reading ability correlates 1:1 with the size of one's feet (because feet grow bigger with age and grade-school level), so market participants setting aggregate odds on self-interested outcomes tend to accurately reflect the predilections of eventual voters.
Accusing traders of partisan prejudice, etc. is accusing them as a group of hoping to lose money. Forget the recriminations: That is not how markets, or the World, have ever worked.
In this sense, Betfair's results are perfectly valid exercises in an objective form of punditry. Any complaints, why not take 'em to Wall Street or the City, and give the Suits a laugh?
11. anonymous
I think Bush is a complete douche. Almost every president that is elected is voted in due to political circumstances. Bush has gota be the dumbest president so far. He cant even spell for God's sake!!!
I dont know much about kerry but, i dnt reli care to be honest cos i live in the uk. Im just concerned that all these dumb decisions made by corrupt ruling in the US is gona effect the world even more.
We're all in this together, and we're gona be stuck with these idiots until someone changes things.
I dont think that americans realise that what they do effects everyone around the world, and having someone like Bush in command of all those military forces is a joke. Its so worrying that it isn't even funny anymore.
Stephen - United Kingdom
12. anonymous
I agree with John Blake about markets, but I am not sure those who do the betting are the same ones casting the votes. I think it is british (or europeans) doing the the betting and Americans will do the voting.
13. anonymous
No landslide, no way.
Kerry lies? Bush didn't lie about Iraq? about weapons about mass destruction? about funding No Child Left Behind? about his military services? about tax cuts? Who do you think is going to pay for Bush's war? Poland?
$143,137,535 and counting.
When information changes and as time change, so does my mind. I want a president who does the same. John Kerry got my vote.
14. bowers
I would like to see the CONSERVATIVE media. Most of the major networks support the LIBERALS which is unfortunate. The only candidate that has stood on sound principles that can be backed by fact is Bush. He is the only candidate that has a consistent platform that protects AMERICAN principles that have stood for over 228 years. Look beyond the rhetoric and into the facts. President Bush has led this country through very difficult times and the Kerry camp has done nothing other than split the country. GO Bush!
15. Erick Johnson
These people are nuts.There are a lot of pissed off people here DESPITE WHAT THE CONSERVATIVE MEDIA IS REPORTING. If Bush
wins I'm leaving. I could not tolerate another for years of this administration.
IT'S KERRY ALL THE WAY .
--------
Good riddance! Move to France where you will fit in nicely. You can drink your latte and defend the moral equivalency of fundamentalist Islam there.
16. anonymous
Are you serious? I agree with you that Kerry is a flip flop, but Bush is so much more. Bush cares only for himself. He let Osama go, because their families are friends and they have business dealings with them. Bush only cares about his income. He doesn't care about any of us.
17. anonymous
Interesting site.
Kerry changes his mind to get votes, not because of any newfound insight. When the election is over, if he wins, he will go back to being John Kerry, with all of his anti-war positions. Our security will suffer, should that happen.
And for the "teacher" in New Jersey, that is "four years", not "for years"
18. anonymous
Kerry's a liar and Bush is an idiot.
Fantastic arguments.
I sincerely hope that the majority of country is voting on actual issues and not ignorant arguments like these.
19. anonymous
need help with your bags
20. Myra Shull
Vote for Kerry the chameleon??? NO WAY!!! The man changes his stand more often than most people change their underwear. Yeah, I'll rock the vote by voting the "Rock" George W. Bush. This is a man that says what he means and means what he says!
21. anonymous
Convincing oneself there's a lesser of two evils today is a monument to our lowered expectations.
22. Fat Vet. Retiree
Blunder in Cape Canaveral, Florida!
Two ballots for some voters who noticed their first ballot was missing an initiative!
This cannot be Fixed, because ALL the ballots are similar, unmarked as to who cast each! Supervisor stated that the number of double voters is only 5 to 100 persons.
Orange County percentage turnout is >80%! Lake County is >82%!
23. anonymous
if i prefer kerry to bush because he is the lesser of two evils, then WHY NOT vote for kerry?!!
Kerry is a liar? come again??!! Are you people that brainwashed not to see Bush is an arrogant deceitful war-monger that alienates not only other nations around the world, but other races. How do you bush supporters see past the lies of the iraq war, past the double standards to the bin laden family, past the deceit of the WMD?? Really, that ignorace must be cozy.
I tell you, i don't know what scares me more, Bush or the americans who blindly support him...thank F'N god i'm Canadian...I'm not religious, i don't believe in God, but tonight i'm going to pray: God help us all and give Kerry a win tonight.
24. Thomas Jefferson
Whoever Eagle Greene is, he's a serious idiot. But so are all Bush supporters. That's what defines "idiot." In addition, they are also blind, evil, mentally ill, and narcicistic. Let's hope Kerry wins.
25. George Bush
Obviously you hit your head on something and have LOST YOUR MIND!
Ask yourself this question... are we better off now then we were before BUSH? The obvious answer is NO!
26. Ryk
The man either can't or won't tell the truth about anything. It is next to impossible for him to make any kind of decision.. Thats truly a Bushism.
27. Joseph Jones
If I said I voted for Kerry I wouldn't say my name either.
28. Kohn Jerry
Anyone who would vote Bush has no brain. Do we really want to end up a Banana Republic? With the privileged in walled homes, cruising around in Hummers while the folks had had their jobs outsourced are left to fend for themselves?
Supporting Bush is just plain shameful, in my opinion.
29. Eagle Greene
There is no reason for a person with an ounce of common sense to even consider voting for Kerry.
The man either can't or won't tell the truth about anything. It is next to impossible for him to make any kind of decision..
What a shame it would be for all of us if he creeped his slimy way into the Whitehouse..
Eagle
http://www.daily-watch.com/life
30. anonymous
Landslide my ass! I thought I could find a more honest perspective on the internet but I only find this crap. Kerry is the best choice, Bush has already set into motion things this divided country will one day together regret. I am sickened by how weak-minded my fellow americans are. I pray for you and me Kerry is president.
31. anonymous
HAHAHA how does it feel kerry lovers? Ah, freedom. You should be thankful he DID have a landslide victory! Thank God for the sane American people out there who voted him back in!
32. Bush Voter
GOODBYE, DON!!!
BTW, it's "four" not "for".
And your a teacher.