By silicon.com, 6 July 2005 18:04
It's been a good few weeks for podcasting fans, with updates to Apple's iTunes software supporting the phenomenon and predictions that podcasting is going to expand at an extraordinary rate over the next few years.
There will be nearly 60 million podcast users in the US alone by 2010, according to forecasts from research consultancy The Diffusion Group, which predicts that 75 per cent of digital music player owners will be downloading audio broadcasts by 2010.
Other research published earlier this year calculated that nearly a third of US adults who own iPods or MP3 players have downloaded podcasts.
And on top of this, Apple has tweaked iTunes to make it easier for iPod fans to listen to downloads - and make it easier for content providers to make money from the craze.
So the future is podshaped, then?
Possibly - after all it's hard to argue with the enthusiasm of bedroom DJs who can now parade their fine work to the broadest audience. And who would want to argue with the BBC, ABC or NBC, who are all now offering podcasts?
But then again, radio shows have been available on the internet for years.
And so has the ability to listen to chunks of that content when you want, rather than when it is broadcast.
Podcasting is simply the ability to download that content onto an MP3 player or the ubiquitous iPod so you can listen to it on the move. Is that really enough of a leap in customer experience for the level of hype that we are experiencing?
Looked at another way, is podcasting simply a neat way of making a virtue of the fact that the iPod doesn't have a built-in radio, even though some of its rivals already do?
Predicting how many podcasting fans there will be in five years time is a tricky business. Who can tell what innovations - especially in terms of wireless - may develop and which of those will swing the market in a completely different direction.
Podcasting certainly looks likely to bring good fortune to Apple. And it is an interesting - and cool - development. But does it deserve so much attention and these bullish predictions of so many millions of users?
We have to say no.
Comments
There are 11 comments. Join the discussion
1. bill
"Looked at another way, is podcasting simply a neat way of making a virtue of the fact that the iPod doesn't have a built-in radio, even though some of its rivals already do?"
You dont seem to get it. Podcasting will thrive because the consumer picks the show and topic and listens when he wants to. You also seem iPod obsessed.
THe fact that current iPods dont have fm has NOTHING to do with it. That you dont understand why proves to me you have no idea what youre talking about.
You really shouldnt be writing about things you dont know enough about lol!
2. John
Congratulations on your 7th.
Thank you for your level-headedness! In the US, from where I enjoy your commentaries, podcasting has been elevated to the level of a 1st-contact event; to the stage where my 11-yr old nephew had to ask me what a podcast was.
As you rightly stated, streaming, and taped, or time-shifted, shows have been available on the internet for ever. However, the IT cognoscenti in the US, having crowned the iPod king of all media, would not want us to forget that it, and everything associated with it, is the greatest innovation siince sliced bread.
3. Thomas Barta
What you are missing hear is that Podcasting has two things going for it: 1) It's the tech trend of the year and 2) it's NOT Radio. Have you LISTENED to radio lately? It's all Clear Channel pre-packaged Pablum. No personality.
4. todd cochrane
It's more about the new people bringing you the media. The regular media has done what I call "Jump Over" the have jumped over to the world of digital audio delivery.
The true question is do people want to hear from people like themselves or do they want to hear what the corporate machine has to tell them that is the real question.
Until now for the price of a telephone call or using a cheap microphone has it been so easy to reach the masses. Did I think some months ago that I would be speaking to 25,000 people on a twice weekly basis from my spare bedroom. Not at all but I am and so can others.
Podcasting is and has changed the face of media and as blogs continie to make changes podcasting will have a bigger impact than most can imagine
Todd Cochrane
Author Podcasting The Do It Yourself Guide
5. Bartley Forsythe
Sorry to say - you've missed the point: podcasting is not about listening to MP3 files. This been done for some time now. Podcasting however, is a fundamental change in DELIVERY, not format.
To be honest, this is the same critique of those who don't understand the technology behind it - once you 'get it' (technologically) you'll 'get it' (revolution).
Podcasting is not going away; it will only grow up and deliver more than goofy-joe-blogs: practically all audio and video subscribable content, ie the future of "TV" and "radio".
6. Dr. Max
How old is Podcasting on iTunes again, a week? Jeez, maybe we should give it at least a week and half before we write articles saying the technology is no big deal.
I just listened to Steve Gilmore poo pooing podcasting too, saying that most people do not have enough hours in the day to listen to all that stuff that's available. What's strange though is I listened to him do on his own...wait for it....PODCAST. Which I didn't even know existed before Apple offered it in iTunes.
All I know is that I can mow my lawn now and listen to SETI Institute's radio show podcast. It may not change the world but it sure makes me as happy as hell!
7. Zakala
The Richard Vobes Radio Show - vobes.com - is an example of why there is so much enthusiasm around podcasting. The technology isn't new, so what? The increase in web use was helped by faster connection speeds, but was any of that new and revolutionary or small incremental steps? It's the content that's got everyone jumping and the fact that everyone can have a go - sure it's narrow casting, but if you happen to be into Peruvian architecture of the 18th century and there's a related podcast (a radio station for you) you'll be enthused. If there isn't one - you can make one.
Podcasting probably isn't going to change the world, but it might bring a smile to a few people's faces.
8. John A Capriotti
This article misses a key podcast virtue, namely that anyone can create and make available a podcast. Its the user control of content creation as well as playback that makes the podcast so potentially powerful.
9. Steve R
Podcasting?? - you sad people.
Truth is, you are all just looking for someone else who has the same outlook on life as yourself.
Do the world a favour - have an original thought and express it to someone you don't know.
10. anne beaumont
Yes I have listened to ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) via my computer, but I am not always there. Yes I can listen to radio on my MP3 player, but ONLY FM. In Australia, some of the best broadcasting is on the AM band, by the ABC. So I can time-shift, and listen to those very good programs as podcasts.
Also, an MP3 player is much more convenient than a CD player, so I have now ordered 'Under Milk Wood' on CD so that I can listen to it on the move.
What has this to do with podcasting? I was profoundly cynical about e-books. I have tried reading large slabs of text on my screen & on my PDA. No-way. But I will listen to the same thing as audio. Now e-books - of the audio variety - make sense.
11. Paul Story
I'm the author of Tom Corven. I'll not repeat the criticisms others have cited regarding this article but I agree with most of them. The exposure podcasting has given my novel is amazing. It's a win-win situation. Why do I give it away? I want my work to be noticed and as the technicalities of the medium become ever easier, so will many other artists. To say that I could have done this long ago indicates a naivety regarding distribution that is quite astonishing.
The fact that I have a substantial audience shows that the demand is there. If 99 out of a 100 people don't want to or can't (non-English speakers for example) listen to my work that leaves about 60 million who just might. A small portion of this potential would be fine thank you. Targeting this group in any other way would be beyond my and most other artist's reach.
This trend, if continued, could change how artists get picked up change the entertainment landscape.