NEWS As the countdown begins to silicon.com's sixth annual Agenda Setters poll of tech's 50 most influential individuals, it is time to look back at those individuals who held top 10 positions in 2004. Today we look at Google's Eric Schmidt has been up to.
Twelve months on and Eric Schmidt is still very much the CEO at Google. Last year saw him rise from 16 to nine on the exclusive silicon.com power list and that begs a simple question: can he chart higher this time around?
The inference here, of course, would be that this writer is betting he will be in the top 50. It wasn't always such a straightforward call but two factors, one long term, the other short-term, suggest he's a major contender.
The first relates to Schmidt the man, wherever he goes. His earlier time at IT heavyweights Sun and Novell left him with one of tech's best reputations, despite setbacks. The Google top job was a plum one, with a mammoth IPO at that stage just around the corner, which says something of the regard in which he is held.
In short, one of the main Agenda Setter criteria is longevity - can an individual go on and replicate success again and again, no matter which organisation they're at? For Schmidt, you have to say yes - even if he keeps on choosing companies that stand toe to toe with mighty Microsoft.
At this stage it is also worth mentioning 'the Google boys'. Founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin have been the face of the search giant since its humble start-up days. Notably they didn't make our list last time, Schmidt being seen to call the shots now. If they are out of the picture again and the Google vote isn't split, as it was in 2003, Schmidt is likely to place higher.
Second, consider what Google is up to. It can still be called the 'search giant' but it seems that every month which goes by now sees its tentacles reach out in other directions, whether that's desktop search, digital global mapping, webmail or domain registration.
There is even talk about a browser, while its moves in the hot area of voice over IP (VoIP) - telephone calls over the internet - amount to one of the big stories of the year.
Google has been at the centre of news this year and it is clear it's not just the PhDs down in the labs driving the push. As an annual project, Agenda Setters is forward looking and about individuals. We shouldn't strictly be asking whether Google will continue its rise - more to the point, what will Schmidt be driving?
Arguably two swords hang over this business leader's head. The first: Microsoft. Just today we hear allegations of a rather determined vow by that company's CEO Steve Ballmer - could he end up above his counterpart at Google this year? - to get the better of Schmidt. That's some nemesis.
Second: the man himself. It seems increasingly as if power is being centralised in the CEO's office. For Schmidt, his success - wherever he works - may ultimately depend on letting others do what they do best. Ironically a higher profile may be a symptom of him doing a worse job.
silicon.com's Agenda Setters panel, made up again of CIOs, analysts, VCs, consultants, lawyers, academics and other experts, convenes in September at our London offices with the results revealed at the end of the month. If you want to pass on your comments for our experts - about Eric Schmidt or any other contender - drop us an email at editorial@silicon.com.
