By Joey Gardiner, 21 August 2000 00:10
COMMENT Analyst house Gartner Group uses a theory called the 'hype cycle' to explain the way new technologies are introduced. There's the hype, and only afterwards, the technology. When the new technology settles down and matures, it never delivers on early hopes. And right now, ASPs have a lot of delivering to do. The vision of renting applications from third parties, delivered over the internet, is indeed an attractive one for many. No longer the struggle to recruit and train highly skilled staff to deal with temperamental applications, no longer the worries over security and uptime - just time to consider the more strategic role of IT within the business. And Dataquest (a division of Gartner) forecasts the market will be worth $25.3bn worldwide by 2004, and $3.6bn by the end of this year But remember outsourcing? The claims made for ASPs are remarkably similar to those that heralded the dawn of a new age several years ago - one where day-to-day plumbing of IT is left to an external company leaving IT directors to concentrate on business decisions, and companies to concentrate on their core competencies. But it never quite happened like that. As traditional software suppliers like Oracle and Microsoft start to redirect in line with the ASP model, one has to ask whether it's really what users want. As silicon.com found out last week, they are worried that ASPs will take skills out of the organisation, whilst leaving them with no direct control over system performance. Whether ASPs prove to be the future is still very much in the balance. However, you can be sure the big vendors will fight tooth and nail to retain the margins they enjoy at the moment. And when people claim change is the only constant in IT, that's always worth remembering.
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