By Alorie Gilbert, 7 July 2005 11:34
NEWS The number of people who download free serial audio programmes, or podcasts, is set to explode over the next few years, according to a new report.
Researchers at The Diffusion Group predicted this week that the US podcast audience will climb from 840,000 in 2004 to 56 million by 2010. By that time, three-quarters of all people who own portable digital music players will listen to podcasts, up from less than 15 per cent last year, the digital entertainment research group said.
The forecast comes amid much hype over podcasting. Apple, whose iPod music player spawned the term "podcast", recently added 3,000 podcast programmes to its iTunes online music store. And what started out as a system for distributing homespun radio programming over the web has now caught on with big media companies. ABC News, ESPN Disney, National Public Radio and NBC News have all introduced podcast programming in recent months.
Apple's move to promote podcasts will bolster the trend, Marc Freedman, the author of The Diffusion Group report, noted. "It will absolutely continue to fuel this explosive growth in podcasting," he said.
In addition to his work for The Diffusion Group, Freedman is the CEO of file-sharing software start-up RazorPop, which facilitates the swapping of media files, including podcasts, over the web.
But collecting podcast statistics is a tricky business. The Pew Internet and American Life Project created a stir a few months ago when it claimed a whopping six million Americans are listening to podcasts. The non-profit's research director later backtracked when pressed by web log Engadget, admitting the number was probably too high because of the way the group phrased its survey.
Even The Diffusion Group's figures are much higher than those found in podcast forecasts from other research firms. For instance, Forrester Research predicted in April that just 12.3 million US households will use MP3 players to listen to audio podcasts by the end of the decade.
Freedman said he based his forecast on The Diffusion Group's data on sales of portable digital music players and high-speed internet penetration. The report was not based on a survey, he said. The Diffusion Group, a research firm formed last year in Dallas, employs 10 analysts and advises a number of major electronics companies, including Dell, HP, Intel and Microsoft.
Alorie Gilbert writes for CNET News.com
Comments
There are 4 comments. Join the discussion
1. Mike Keliher
This predicted growth is great news for podcasting and podcasters everywhere.
Also of interest: the Marketing Edge podcast - http://providentpartners.blogspot.com - sat down with Marc for his first interview after this report was released. The podcast audio is available online, and as far as we know, it's the only audio interview with Marc that's available on the Web.
Marc talks about the report and where he sees the technology heading the future. Check it out.
Mike
2. Simon Allen
'PODcasting' sounds like people sending things AT me and expeting me to listen?
All I need it to be able to record BBC Radio 4 on my PC via broadband. Then I can listen when it suits me. This might be oin my PC, it might be transferred to my mobile to listen in MP3.
What I need is a Radio Recorder programme on my PC. Since it can do it for TV, I presume it must be possible for radio but where do I find this?
3. Mike
The difference between podcasting and just recording a radio or TV broadcast is this:
Anyone can make a podcast. All you need is a computer with a microphone (actually, there are ways to do this with as little as a regular telephone).
In the end, it's not much different than recording a radio program, but there's so much more to choose from for listening.
4. anonymous
BBC Real audio streams are explicitly intended to not be recordable, but there are a few shareware options to be found at Download.com (search for "record Real Audio"). However, if you're handy with working with code you can hack a Real stream using open-source software. I use some Unix/Linux (MPlayer) tools on my Mac and I've had pretty good luck.
The BBC does provide some podcasts for download, including Melvyn Bragg's in Our Time.