By silicon.com, 8 November 2006 16:10
Remember the Battle of the Desktop?
A few years ago excitement began to grow - could Windows at last have a strong competitor in the shape of open source Linux?
Predictions were issued for the end of Windows dominance and the downfall of Microsoft as users flocked to the free operating system.
But these days the debate sounds much more sober. Linux will not kill Windows, it will exist alongside it. The open source OS is suited for some tasks, not all. And it's hardly free - even if you don't pay for the software, which many do, support costs can be considerable.
Today silicon.com's CIO Jury issued its own verdict - Linux on the desktop is dead. The panel of IT chiefs said there are too many flavours of Linux to encourage the development of the necessary desktop applications and tools - and on the desktop the OS is just as complex if not more so than its rival Windows.
Though Linux has had success in the server room - with even Oracle providing support for Red Hat Linux - it has never taken hold on workplace desktops. And it appears it never will.
It's too bad. With so much dissatisfaction around Windows, businesses deserve a better option. One CIO Juror posited Mac OS X has a better chance of dominating the desktop than Linux - but given the low penetration of Macs in offices and homes, this seems another long shot.
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Still, Microsoft is getting some competition - not from a rival software package but from a whole new model for software delivery. Software as a service promises to shake up Redmond - and the rest of the traditional software world - by doing away with packaged software and instead providing services over the network on an on-demand basis.
This could change the whole way we think about the desktop - not as a static operating system and set of applications but as a conduit for a variety of services which are available when we need them.
The concept could be even more threatening to Microsoft than a free desktop OS.
Comments
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1. David Frossard
Interesting to read this story the very week I switched to Linux on the desktop. Who knew I installed a "dead" operaing system? (My first impression: Linux is a whole lot easier to install and use than even a couple of years ago.)
Though Linux admittedly remains more usable for people with advanced skills, the upcoming upheaval of Vista and Office 2007 will inevitably cause a good many who are on the cusp of Linux adoption to move that way. Just recently a local university's engineering department announced it was moving from Office to StarOffice, based primarily on cost advantages. Others are talking about how the Office 2007 interface will be even more different (and require more retraining) than OpenOffice's. So why not switch?
So ... is Linux really dead on the desktop? For the majority -- those for whom Windows is "good enough" -- perhaps. But for anyone with a anti-monopolist streak, a tight budget, or particular computing requirements, it's still a viable option. As long as a critical mass of people use Linux on the desktop (and as long as a critical mass of programers maintains and expands the GUI interface and apps), why write off Linux prematurely?
2. Van Jabagjorian
Hello? Why no mention of Mac OS X? The market share has been steadily increasing and is approaching 10%. What's the market share for Linux? Making mention would help provide a more comprehensive picture. Certainly from a technical perspective, Mac OS X, having a Unix kernel, is more of a threat to Linux.
3. James Tyrrell
I agree that the Linux desktop is not ready for the general public, also yes there are many (possibly too many) distros offering different levels of applications, tools and systems and indeed yes many of them are aiming at very different target audiences.
However, (you knew this was coming) don't say something as overly dramatic as Linux desktop is "dead". It was never going to replace windows 99% monopoly it is just there as an alternative for the tech savvy not the general user. I remember someone once saying "No one will ever need more than 640k of memory" (Bill Gates, 1985) These kind of sweeping statements are nearly always wrong.
What the CIO jury also isn't considering is that given a number of years the general public will be more tech savvy and Linux will be much more simplified to use. It wont go away and will only become a more robust and streamlined system, until the practical benefits do outweigh the simplicity of a ms system. The real battle will be in the education sector because it's not what's better it's usually what you know that decides software choices.
4. Joe Audette
There are plenty of place where linux desktops make sense, particulary using the Novell SLED is a great idea in many places.
The argument about desktop complexity and available apps is muted quite a bit by the availability of software as a service delivered in the web browser. Most custom business applications developed today are web apps and therefore require no software on the desktop, they only need the browser. For those who need ofice apps, open office compatibility is there.
I can certainly see using Novell SLED when rolling out a new call center for example. The apps they need can be web based and the savings of SLED over Vista with Office is huge per seat.
The security is probably better for web users on SLED as well.
A very compelling time to consider linux on the desktop despite the opinion in your article.
5. Linux Sux
You bet it's dead. Every new release of every distro gets even deader. Dead solid. Running on dead machines. I just put together an Edubuntu box for my three year old.
It's recomended for ages two and up. Installed by dumbass dad. I'm sure it can't be used by anyone in the workplace, too complex, only good for servers I hear. Did I mention it's outdated equipment that it runs on? I actually got the machine out of the dumpster. The hard disk was trashed by windows. Linux worked great though. The best thing about it is, there's no behind the scenes processes trying to do everything for you, against your will. Just a clean, no frills desktop built on a robust kernel. Installation of Edubuntu, Ubuntu and Kubuntu amounts to booting off a cd and a click on the install icon. Duh.
6. Daniel Westendorf
Linux Dead? Hardly. The great thing about Linux is that you can make it whatever you want it to be. Can you do that with Windows? How about the recent deal Microsoft made with Novell in regards to SUSE? I agree that Linux will never replace Windows, BUT I do believe that Linux will continue to evolve into a more suitable OS. There are some things I dread doing on a Windows box, but thankfully Linux is my lifesaver. Windows has miles to go before it is my "wonder system," but until then I'll make Linux do the job for me, the way I want.
7. anonymous
I'm actually running my business on a Laptop with Suse Linux 10.1. My desktop is nowhere near dead.
In Germany, there is currently a massive movement to switch thousands of government desktops to Linux. Other parts of the world are following suit.
Recently, Microsoft paid Novell millions of dollars for the right to support Linux.
Whowever your CIO jury panel was, it is clear that they were very ignorant in issuing such a nonsensical veredict as they lack a clear view of the overall state of desktop technologies.
8. DGS
The only thing blocking Linux as the primary user desktop is that it doesn't come pre-installed. For the past six months, whenever computer users with a low level of technology skills come to me with sluggish and bug-infested windows installs, I have been installing Ubuntu or Xubuntu (if they have a low end machine) 6.06 LTS over their windows, and they all think it's better, usually because it's stable and responsive instead of laggy and buggy.
Really, the only group of people I've ever met who don't prefer Mac or Linux desktops when they're given one are people who don't understand computers, particularly windows, but think they do, and consequently expect everything to be like windows and can't cope with the slightest bit of change. To them, being able to click on the date to access your calendar and add a meeting is freakish, though I'm not sure why...
9. Simon
I'm not at all surprised by this article, it's been quite clear for some time that this CIO panel is filled with "big company with corporate licensing and a need to have someone to blame" people !
There is only ONE reason Windows is still as dominant in the home as it is now - pre-installation. Since it takes some effort to get a PC without Windows, few users will bother to ask if there are alternatives, and of course are reassured by lemmings like those in the panel that Windows is right because everyone uses it.
In the office it's not too dissimilar a story - a previous director I worked for typified the situation with "I get sent Excel spreadsheets therefore I HAVE to have Excel".
Where Microsoft wins is through their marketing - making the (mostly) guys in senior management believe that nothing exists beyond Microsofts product line. The "no-one gets fired for buying Microsoft" line. This is backed up by having a huge portfolio of products designed so that whatever the customer wants, Microsoft has something to do it - not necessarily well, but it does it. SO we have millions of mediocre products used by people that don't know better and in some cases can't buy better because Microsoft has managed to kill of any serious competition.
Funny, 20 years ago it was "no-one gets fired for buying IBM", and where are they now ?
10. Quentin Sciascia
I will have to agree and disagree. I run both Windows and Linux, I keep Windows around cause Battle.Net does not run properly on Linux under Cedega or WINE. Windows is a very "easy to use" OS, its all GUI for everything, not once in the many years I have used Windows have I ever had to use the CLI. Upgrades have usually gone flawlessly, and program installation is a snap. Linux (I mainly use SuSE, Fedora and SimplyMEPIS), is also good for installing programs using the various GUI package managers, however, for a new user, there is not enough explaination for what the programs are. You have to search over the net to find what does what and how before installing it. Linspire/Freespire has the right idea with CnR warehouse and is very GUI driven. So if Linux wants Windows GUI usability with Linux Stability, then it needs to address GUI, usability, documentation and PROMOTING ITSELF!!
11. V. Sethuraman
Yes. It is going to happen in the near future and the dominance of microsoft on the desktop will get reduced.
12. Leslie Satenstein
I have been using linux as my only desktop system for the past 1.5 years. It installed as easily as Windows XP, it gives me much more functionality at a much much lower cost, and... for my needs as writer, internet user, programmer, and working stiff. To say that linux is not ready is to indicate that you expect linux to emulate windows xp. Fortunately for me, I did not have to invest in a series of anti-virus programs, to invest in hoards of utilities for windows xp that, as standard linux with Gnome provides, comes standard.
Here is what I have.
A) Multi-tasking
B) Visio equivalent
C) Open Office write
D) Power Point Equivalent
E) Excel Equivalent
F) Project Equivalent
G) Outlook Equivalent
H) Reams of games and educational materiel for my children
H) All other stuff that I cannot list in this short response
I MOST OF ALL, I HAVE RELIABILITY, DEPENDABILITY, AND SECURITY
13. Leslie Satenstein
Comment about not being ready.
The real and probably only problem with linux is that there is no money to be made by the big-box stores. The money earnings will shift to publishers who produce the "how to use xyz application" to support individuals.
Let the Big Box stores abandon the pc. They dont make money from it anyway, but from the very large screen flat panel televisions, from white goods (washer/dryer) and from teenager toys (Ipods, cameras, etc)
14. Nick Weavers
Would Mac OS X take Vista's lunch?
Now that Mac OS X can run on Intel hardware, Isn't there a huge opportunity for Apple to steal Microsofts lunch. Apple is currently riding high in consumer awareness and popularity thanks to iPod. Given the brilliance that Apple marketing are renowned for, surely if Apple were to make their OS available for general PC's it would give Vista a serious problem and make Apple a tidy fortune.
15. Henrique Fernandes
I really have some fun reading your essay. People like you make me laugh when writting about something your're not able to, maybe it's too simple to write about it!
Please, do yourself a favor. Get ubuntu and install it!
16. Pat Mason
ISTM that software as a service is a step back towards the NetPC, which Microsoft tried to market years ago . It mever took off, so why should the concept be more popular now? Personally I like to own what I use, and have it in my control, not depend on an outside service to supply it on a rental basis. Professionally I feel more secure knowing that nobody else has a way into our network especially at the software installation level, we don't even let our own users have installation access rights to PCs.