COMMENT
Potential problems
So what issues are you likely to come up against if you choose to move from XP to Windows 7?
Unfortunately, Microsoft does not advise a direct upgrade from XP to Windows 7. It recommends a clean install at the basic level. Tools to help are available but this will still present an appreciable cost into the overall project. For those with definable groups of workers with definable desktop configurations, 'golden images' can make this effort easier and more cost effective, but for smaller organisations, the use of manual aids to simplify the move will also be useful.
Windows 7 is still young, even though it has been publically tested for more than 12 months. Therefore, expect to find some issues - even if these are minor. Quocirca has found some issues with Internet Explorer 8 - on closing down some instances, an error can be thrown, but this does not seem to cause a complete collapse of IE overall, and other instances just keep running. Historically, due to issues with a young operating system, the received wisdom has been to wait for the first service pack to come through. Quocirca believes this isn't the case here - Windows 7 is ready for prime time use.
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Still, Microsoft may not have everything its own way. Usage patterns are changing, and there is a move to central control again, with virtual desktops increasing in popularity. To access these, anything with a standardised browser can be the platform, and thin client hardware is beginning to pick up some traction again. Google, with Chrome; Apple, with Safari; and the many different distros of Linux with Firefox could all be players here.
If the user still wants a Windows desktop, it's no great issue to Microsoft - the access device may move away from Windows but the virtual desktop is still likely to remain Windows 7. Even at the thin client level, it is noticeable that many vendors are focusing on Windows-based machines, to gain a better level of support for USB devices and device manageability.
The cloud
The other issue for Microsoft in general could be the cloud. Here, Google has been making some inroads, with media and public sector looking at the use of cloud-hosted productivity applications. Microsoft's Azure cloud offering will increasingly attempt to counter this, and Quocirca expects to see more of Microsoft's capabilities made available through Azure during 2010 - but the success of this is by no means assured.
Overall, it looks like 2010 will be the year of Windows 7. Microsoft has done a good job being more open in the development and testing of the platform, and has done enough to ensure that existing Windows users are not put, en masse, into a position where they feel that a full review is required alongside Linux, Chrome and OS X.
However, Microsoft cannot rest on its laurels. It is likely that Windows 7 will be the last monolithic operating system to hit the market: the next OS generation will need to be far more modular, will need to be a means to an end of accessing and managing function within a highly heterogeneous, amorphous blend of cloud, centralised function and localised capability.
A leading user-facing analyst house known for its focus on the big picture, Quocirca is made up of a team of experts in technology and its business implications. The team includes Clive Longbottom, Bob Tarzey, Rob Bamforth, Louella Fernandes, Fran Howarth and Simon Perry. Their series of columns for silicon.com seeks to demystify the latest jargon and business thinking. For a full summary of the consultancy's activities, see www.quocirca.com
