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Econometric and Statistical Data Mining, Prediction and Policy-Making

Overview How to formulate models that work well in explanation, prediction and policy-making is a central problem in all fields of science. This paper explains the strategy, Structural Econometric Modeling, Times Series Analysis (SEMTSA) approach that the author's colleagues and he have employed in their efforts to produce a macroeconomic model that works well in point and turning point forecasting, explanation and policy-making. Data relating to 18 industrialized countries over the years, taken from the IMF-IFS data base have been employed in estimation and forecasting tests of the models using fixed and time varying parameter models, Bayesian posterior odds, model combining or averaging, shrinkage, and Bayesian method of moments procedures.

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Publisher
University of Chicago
File Format
PDF
Date Published
Oct 1, 2008
Format
White Papers
Topics
Economic Modeling, Data Mining - Analysis

University of Chicago White Papers

Online Data Mining Services for Dynamic Spatial Databases II: Air Quality Location Based Services and Sonification

Online Data Mining Services for Dynamic Spatial Databases II: Air Quality Location Based Services and Sonification

This paper introduces online data mining services for dynamic spatial databases associated with environmental monitoring

Publisher: University of Chicago  |  Tags: data, data mining, server

Peer-to-Peer Architecture Case Study: Gnutella Network

Peer-to-Peer Architecture Case Study: Gnutella Network

Despite recent excitement generated by the Peer-to-Peer (P2P) paradigm and the surprisingly rapid deployment of some P2P

Publisher: University of Chicago  |  Tags: applications, network

Evaluating Wireless Carrier Consolidation Using Semiparametric Demand Estimation

Evaluating Wireless Carrier Consolidation Using Semiparametric Demand Estimation

The US mobile phone service industry has dramatically consolidated over the last two decades. One justification for cons

Publisher: University of Chicago  |  Tags: data, mobile phone, online retailer

Cloud Computing and Grid Computing 360-Degree Compared

Cloud Computing and Grid Computing 360-Degree Compared

Cloud Computing has become another buzzword after Web 2.0. However, there are dozens of different definitions for Cloud

Publisher: University of Chicago  |  Tags: computing, utility computing

INTCTD: A Peer-to-Peer Approach for Intrusion Detection

INTCTD: A Peer-to-Peer Approach for Intrusion Detection

This paper proposes a Peer-to-Peer (P2P) prototype (INTCTD) for intrusion detection over an overlay network. INTCTD is a

Publisher: University of Chicago  |  Tags: network